Invest 98W: Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Invest 99B: upgraded to Medium



98W: HIGH.   99B: MEDIUM
98W: HIGH. 99B: MEDIUM
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 98W
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 29, 2019:

Location: 11.6°N 115.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 282330
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.5N 127.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PALAWAN, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 280111Z MHS METOP-A
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS VERY LITTLE INDICATION OF A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND MINIMAL OVERHEAD CONVECTION. 98W IS CURRENTLY
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOT), AND WARM (28 TO 29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LAND INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
98W WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AFTER CROSSING INTO
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 282130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 99B
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 29, 2019:

Location: 4.8°N 77.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

ABIO10 PGTW 290230
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 83.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 77.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310
NM SOUTH OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 282352Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING
CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION ABOVE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG UL
DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD FLOW, AND WARM (29-31C) SSTS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL AND TRACK. ECMWF SHOWS THE
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND TURNING WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA WHILE NAVGEM SHOWS INVEST 99B TRACKING MORE NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT. NAVGEM CALLS FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72, WHILE GSM
AND GFS MAINTAIN A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
 

INVEST 98W: TCFA
INVEST 98W: TCFA

INVEST 98W: 28/21UTC
INVEST 98W: 28/21UTC

INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 99B: GFS ENSEMBLE
INVEST 99B: GFS ENSEMBLE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 29 Octobre 2019 à 06:44