Halong(24W) now a Super Typhoon, Maha(05A), Invest 90W and ex 23W: updates



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

STY HALONG(24W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 05, 2019:

Location: 19.6°N 151.3°E
Maximum Winds: 130 kt ( 240km/h)
Gusts: 160 kt ( 300km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 923 mb
CATEGORY US: 4

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR
012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 427 NM
NORTHEAST OF TINIAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. STY 24W HAS A 9 NM WIDE EYE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 130
KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY A 050300Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
132 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. STY 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY ERODING THE STEERING STR TO
THE EAST OF STY 24W. STY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 24 THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. STY 24W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW
TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC).
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 72 AND COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. AFTER TAU 72, STY
24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND COOLING SSTS DROPPING BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
NAVGEM IS THE EASTERN OUTLIER SHOWING A TIGHTER RECURVE. OTHERWISE,
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING
OF THE RECURVE, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED
AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

INVEST 90W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 05, 2019:

Location: 13.6°N 115.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 113.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.6E, APPROXIMATELY
315NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND MAXIMUM
WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. DEVELOPMENT IS SUPPORTED BY WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT
OFFSET BY HIGH LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT (20-30 KNOTS). THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GLOBAL MODELS THAT 90W WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
STRENGTHENING, AND CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW
050330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.


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NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 05, 2019:

Location: 19.7°N 63.8°E
Maximum Winds: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Gusts: 110 kt ( 205km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 64.1E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT WITH AN EMBEDDED CENTER AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON TURNING IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS REFLECTS THE WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5 (90-102 KTS) AND A 050645Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 85KTS. TC 05A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND FAVORABLE (27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 05A HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK DUE EAST THROUGH TAU 24 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT TAU 36. AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. CONVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AROUND TAU 72. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR MODEL CONSENSUS. AN ALTERNATE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY NAVGEM, GALWEM, AND GEFS SHOWS TC 05A TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK STILL FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION AS IT APPEARS MORE DYNAMICALLY SUPPORTED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN

REMNANTS OF TD 23W
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 05, 2019:

Location: 12.5°N 90.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.


STY 24W: INTENSITY PEAKING WITHIN 12H
STY 24W: INTENSITY PEAKING WITHIN 12H


TC 05A: WEAKENING, INTENSITY FORECAST TO BE BELOW 65KTS AFTER 24H
TC 05A: WEAKENING, INTENSITY FORECAST TO BE BELOW 65KTS AFTER 24H

STY 24W: CLICK TO ANIMATE
STY 24W: CLICK TO ANIMATE

TC 24W: 05/0727UTC
TC 24W: 05/0727UTC

TC 24W: 05/0601UTC
TC 24W: 05/0601UTC

TC 24W: 05/0601UTC
TC 24W: 05/0601UTC

TC 24W: 05/0514UTC
TC 24W: 05/0514UTC

TC 24W: 05/0514UTC
TC 24W: 05/0514UTC

TC 24W: 05/0402UTC
TC 24W: 05/0402UTC

TC 24W: 05/0402UTC
TC 24W: 05/0402UTC

TC 24W: 04/2028UTC
TC 24W: 04/2028UTC

TC 24W: 04/2028UTC
TC 24W: 04/2028UTC

TC 24W: 05/06UTC
TC 24W: 05/06UTC

TC 05A: 05/06UTC
TC 05A: 05/06UTC


TC 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

24W: HWRF: 133KTS AT +18H
24W: HWRF: 133KTS AT +18H

TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 105KTS AT +0H
05A: HWRF: 105KTS AT +0H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 5 Novembre 2019 à 13:18