meteo





Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P): landfall over Cape York forecast shortly after 72hours


Intensity being hampered by a tongue of drier air from the north.


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications:  https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-has-formed-forecast-to-intensify-next-24hours-maybe-faster-than-indicated_a819.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-INVEST-94P-likely-to-intensify-next-24-48h-and-may-take-on-subtropical-characteristics_a818.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 00:00 UTC May 12, 2019:

Location: 16.2°S 158.5°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h )
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h )

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 158.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 732 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER, AND OBSCURED BY, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON A
112308Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THIS PASS WAS ALSO USED TO ESTIMATE THE
INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE ASCAT PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-
3.0 (35-45 KTS). INTENSIFICATION IS BEING HAMPERED BY MARGINAL
(ABOUT 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND A TONGUE OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH DESPITE LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 27P WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OVER TIME, FIRST DUE TO DECREASING SST
AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEN LATER DUE TO HIGH VWS. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND 40 KTS UNTIL THE VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AROUND TAU 72. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN, MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK, THEN DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL FALL BELOW 35 KTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO 96 HOURS TO
ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA (GOC). HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE GOC DESPITE WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SST. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA ARE HOVERING AROUND 25-30 KTS, ALMOST
MATCHING THE FORECASTED INTENSITY OF TC 27P AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
ALL THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
NNNN


02UTC. TC 27P IS SHAKING HANDS WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
02UTC. TC 27P IS SHAKING HANDS WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

02UTC
02UTC

00UTC
00UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 27P
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 27P

HWRF AT 18UTC: 46KT AT +6H
HWRF AT 18UTC: 46KT AT +6H

GFS AT 18UTC: 52KT AT +48H
GFS AT 18UTC: 52KT AT +48H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 12 Mai 2019 à 07:17