Coral Sea: TC ANN(27P) forecast to make landfall near Coen as a 45knots cyclone shortly after 36 hours


Flaring convection with the cyclonic circulation still well organized at the lower levels


WARNING 7/JTWC
WARNING 7/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-is-forecast-to-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-near-Coen-in-48hours_a824.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-is-forecast-to-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-near-Coen-in-48hours_a824.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 06:00 UTC May 13, 2019:

Location: 15.3°S 152.8°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h )
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h )

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 152.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 130509Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS GREATLY REDUCED DEEP CONVECTION AND THAT THE PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE EYE HAS DETERIORATED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A MOSTLY VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE REDUCED DEEP
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS), ALTHOUGH FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 27P
WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AS NORTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE STR ALOFT IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM, BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 27P WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA
AFTER TAU 36, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DESPITE WARM (28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 IF NOT SOONER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS TO ADJUST
FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN

LANDFALL FORECAST NEAR COEN BETWEEN 36/48HOURS AS A 45KNOTS CYCLONE
LANDFALL FORECAST NEAR COEN BETWEEN 36/48HOURS AS A 45KNOTS CYCLONE

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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 13 Mai 2019 à 13:22