meteo





Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) is forecast to make landfall over Cape York near Coen in 48hours


High confidence in the forecast track


WARNING 6/JTWC
WARNING 6/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications:  https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-has-probably-peaked-130km-h-gusts--landfall-forecast-over-Cape-York-shortly-before-48hours_a823.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-Cyclone-ANN-27P-forecast-to-peak-within-12-24hours-and-make-landfall-over-Cape-York-shortly-before-48hours_a822.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 00:00 UTC May 13, 2019:

Location: 15.5°S 154.2°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h )
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h )

Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 153.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER A CIRRUS SHIELD AND
ROBUST OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE AMBIGUITIES OF A
122246Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH HAD SEVERAL 45-50 KT
WIND BARBS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, TC 27P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AROUND TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER.
AROUND TAU 48, LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER CAPE YORK. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN

FORECAST LANDFALL AREA
FORECAST LANDFALL AREA

03UTC
03UTC

00UTC
00UTC

2313UTC
2313UTC





Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 13 Mai 2019 à 08:02