Coral Sea: Cyclone ANN(27P) forecast to peak within 12/24hours and make landfall over Cape York shortly before 48hours


The cyclone has been intensifying above the initial JTWC forecast


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Recent publications: https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-landfall-over-Cape-York-forecast-shortly-after-72hours_a820.html
https://www.meteo974.re/Coral-Sea-TC-ANN-27P-has-formed-forecast-to-intensify-next-24hours-maybe-faster-than-indicated_a819.html

SOUTH PACIFIC

TC ANN(27P)
As of 06:00 UTC May 12, 2019:

Location: 16.2°S 157.8°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h )
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h )

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb

REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 157.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED
NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN
THE 120257Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS AND T3.5/55KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CORAL SEA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27-28C. TC 27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST BEFORE TAU 48 THEN CROSS INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
FUEL AND SUSTAIN A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KNOTS, TEMPERED
BY A VIGOROUS COLD DRY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE CORAL SEA UP TO
TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LANDFALL AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 AS IT APPROACHES GOVE ON THE WEST
SHORE OF THE GOC. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 3/JTWC
WARNING 3/JTWC

08UTC
08UTC

06UTC
06UTC


0521UTC
0521UTC

0258UTC
0258UTC



Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 12 Mai 2019 à 13:27