meteo





Category 4 Lingling has peaked heading for N.Korea. Faxai south of Japan in 48h as a cat 2



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 28.1°N 125.1°E
Maximum Winds: 120 kt ( 225km/h)
Gusts: 145 kt ( 270km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 933 mb
CATEGORY US: 4

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM
NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY
SHOWS TY 15W REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A
WELL-DEFINED 30-NM EYE. RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHT INTO THE
EYE, WHICH LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACEMENT
 BASED ON A DISCERNIBLE EYE FEATURE IN HIMAWARI-8 VISIBLE 1 KM
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0
TO T6.2. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH VALUES OF 5-20
KTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAIN
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TRACK AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS, MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NORTH KOREA AROUND TAU 30. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK OVER RUGGED TERRAIN AND MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 72.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO
MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 12. AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
YELLOW SEA, TY 15W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SST VALUES. TY 15W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
AS IT ENTERS THE MIDLATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AROUND TAU 30 AND
SUBSEQUENTLY RAPIDLY DECAY WITH LAND INTERACTION. THE TAU 72 POSITION
SHOWS INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND WIND RADII AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
ETT AND TRANSFORMS INTO A STRONG GALE FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK
SPEED AFTER TAU 36. BASED ON THE RELATIVELY LOW UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FAXAI (14W)
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:
Location: 22.7°N 152.0°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts : 55kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 993 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 601 NM EAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (AMSI)
DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) UNDER THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE CURRENT AMSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON
THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T2.7
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND TROUGHING
SOUTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS CAUSING STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE, THUS RESTRICTING WESTWARD OUTFLOW
AND CONSTRAINING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MODERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO ANOTHER TUTT CELL TO THE EAST PROVIDES
VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. TS 14W HAS A FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT WITH VALUES OF 10-20 KTS AND CONTINUES TO
TRACK OVER WARM SST (30 CELSIUS) WHILE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH INFLUENCES THE STEERING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 14W WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT TRACK, STEERED BY THE STR.
AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO
ROUND THE STR AXIS. AROUND TAU 66, TS 14W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER
HONSHU, JAPAN, NEAR TOKYO. THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE SLOW THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KTS
BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STR.  THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL
AND TOWARDS PREVAILING WESTERLIES. TS 14W WILL WEAKEN TO 65 KTS AFTER
LANDFALL.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 14W WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD, EXITING BACK OVER THE PACIFIC
OCEAN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST, TRANSFORMING INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE
LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 95W
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 06, 2019:

Location: 10.5°N 145.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 93W

As of 18:00 UTC Sep 05, 2019:
Location: 13.0°N 128.8°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb

15W: WARNING 17
15W: WARNING 17


15W: 06/02UTC
15W: 06/02UTC

15W: 06/0157UTC
15W: 06/0157UTC

15W: 06/00UTC
15W: 06/00UTC

14W: 06/00UTC
14W: 06/00UTC

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 6 Septembre 2019 à 06:49