Western North Pacific: Typhoon 02W(SURIGAE), US/CAT 1 is forecast to intensify significantly within 48hours and peak in 72hours, 16/03utc update


02W(SURIGAE). ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING HAS NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECCESSARY.


02W(SURIGAE). ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS  TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING HAS NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE  OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECCESSARY.
02W(SURIGAE). ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING HAS NOW COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECCESSARY.
2021 APR 16 0240UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 11
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 16, 2021:
Location: 8.8°N 134.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt (140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 16/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 80 KM NORTH OF KAYANGEL, PALAU HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)  IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL  RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE  TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DEEPENS AND BREAKS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR  AROUND 48H, CAUSING TY 02W TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL  STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CAUSED BY THE  MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WITH TY 02W REACHING 115KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 48H.  AFTER 72H, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR  TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TY SURIGAE TO  TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN  PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME  SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE  DECREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE  FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 100KNOTS/CAT 3 120H.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 11 ISSUED AT 16/03UTC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST DEEPENS AND BREAKS THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AROUND 48H, CAUSING TY 02W TO TURN NORTHWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CAUSED BY THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WITH TY 02W REACHING 115KNOTS/CAT 4 BY 48H. AFTER 72H, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BREAK IN THE STR TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TY SURIGAE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AS THE AMOUNT OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE DECREASES AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL DECREASE DOWN TO 100KNOTS/CAT 3 120H.

02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD  OF 315KM AT 72H WITH ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUING TO  REMAIN FURTHER WEST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK HAS  BEEN PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN  THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 650KM AT 120H AS TRACK  SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED  PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
02W(SURIGAE). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 315KM AT 72H WITH ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUING TO REMAIN FURTHER WEST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS 650KM AT 120H AS TRACK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.


02W(SURIGAE). 15/18UTC. AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. PEAK INTENSITY AT +60H= 110KNOTS/930HPA. USUALLY THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE AVN SOLUTION.
02W(SURIGAE). 15/18UTC. AVN INTENSITY GUIDANCE. PEAK INTENSITY AT +60H= 110KNOTS/930HPA. USUALLY THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY IS ABOVE THE AVN SOLUTION.


02W(SURIGAE). 16/0056UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED  CIRCULATION.
02W(SURIGAE). 16/0056UTC METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A TIGHTLY WRAPPED CIRCULATION.


02W(SURIGAE). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.2 m/s (12.0 kts)Direction : 97.2 deg  Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.
02W(SURIGAE). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.2 m/s (12.0 kts)Direction : 97.2 deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H.

16/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELIITE BULLETINS.
16/03UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 02W(SURIGAE) AND 3HOURLY SATELIITE BULLETINS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 16 Avril 2021 à 07:15