meteo





WIPHA(08W) weakening overland, FRANCISCO(09W) slowly approaching southern Japan


INVEST 94W is still lMEDIUM


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD WIPHA(08W)
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:

Location: 21.5°N 107.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (WIPHA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (WIPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF EIR, A 021746Z
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
35 KT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A RJTD SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW, IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THAT
SAID, WITH THE CENTER POSITIONED OVER LAND, INTENSIFICATION IS
UNLIKELY. TS 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). SOME BUILDING OF THE STR HAS ALLOWED THE
ALONG-TRACK SPEED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA AND VIETNAM. AROUND TAU
12, THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CARRY 08W INLAND, JUST SOUTH
OF HANOI AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BUT SOME
MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF
THAT WERE TO OCCUR, THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF THE FORECAST COULD
CHANGE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:
Location: 22.7°N 150.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 992 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH ALSO SHOWS A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS INHIBITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LLCC. DESPITE THE OBSCURATION IN THE EIR, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH FALLS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL 40 KT INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) TO REFLECT THE
CONSISTENT STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM SINCE A 020747Z SMAP IMAGE SHOWED
A PEAK WIND OF 44 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, DESPITE GOOD
EASTWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A
TUTT CELL TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS BRINGING SUBSIDENCE AND SHEAR TO
THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THAT SAID, THE ALONG-
TRACK SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY TAUS TO REFLECT
RECENT STORM MOTION AND ALIGN WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 09W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. AT TAU 72, SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 215 NM, THOUGH
SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
TS 09W SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 DUE TO THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF THE TUTT CELL. AFTER TAU 36, THE TUTT CELL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AND TRACK WESTWARD, ALLOWING TS 09W TO INTENSIFY AT A
FASTER RATE, REACHING 80 KTS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU, JAPAN
AROUND TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 09W WILL GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AS IT
STARTS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AS IT CROSSES KYUSHU DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM AND GFS, WHICH RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOONER THAN
THE OTHER MEMBERS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OVERALL,
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 94W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 02, 2019:
Location: 15.6°N 132.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

 

08W: WARNING 13
08W: WARNING 13

09W: WARNING 5
09W: WARNING 5

02/1730UTC
02/1730UTC

02/1803UTC. WIPHA(08W): IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE( ALIKE RADAR) FOR SUCH AN INTENSITY
02/1803UTC. WIPHA(08W): IMPRESSIVE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE( ALIKE RADAR) FOR SUCH AN INTENSITY

02/1955UTC. DMSP F18. FRANCISCO(09W)
02/1955UTC. DMSP F18. FRANCISCO(09W)

08W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
08W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 3 Août 2019 à 01:35