Typhoon Kammuri could intensify to category 4 within 3 days while approaching the Philippines



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KAMMURI (29W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 28, 2019:
Location: 11.7°N 138.9°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH
NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MIDDLE
OF A DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH  CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 272036Z
CORIOLIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM RJTD AND
T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSES INDICATE
A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A VERY
WARM (>30C) ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. A TRANSITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BREAK THE STEERING STR AND DRIVE TY 29W NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE COL AND INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE. AROUND TAUS 36-
48 AND AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, A NEWLY-FORMED STR TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BUILD, REORIENT, AND SLOWLY DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO
120KTS BY TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY KAMMURI WILL CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD
TRACK UNDER THE SECONDARY STR AND OVER THE VERY WARM PHILIPPINE SEA
TOWARD SOUTHERN LUZON, PHILIPPINES. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FUEL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY
OF 130KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK WITH NAVGEM ON THE RIGHT
AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE THAT GRADUALLY SPREADS
OUT 20 215NM BY TAU 120.  HOWEVER, GIVEN THE THE DIFFERENCES IN
ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS AND THE STORM MOTION UNCERTAINTY IN THE COL,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

FORECAST TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON IN 5 DAYS
FORECAST TO BE A SUPER TYPHOON IN 5 DAYS

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 140KTS AT +78H
HWRF: 140KTS AT +78H

28/00UTC
28/00UTC

28/0430UTC
28/0430UTC

28/0430UTC
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Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 28 Novembre 2019 à 07:34