Typhoon Kalmaegi is intensifying, forecast to make landfall over Northern Luzon in apprx 24h



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 18, 2019:
Location: 18.1°N 123.2°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A 10-NM
RAGGED EYE AND IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION
IS EVIDENT IN AN 180458Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A NEAR-COMPLETE
EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR AND AMSR2 36GHZ
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE A SHARP
SPIKE IN ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST EIGHT HOURS WITH CURRENT VALUES
RANGING FROM 70-75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. TY 27W IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST.         
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INITIAL 34-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF RECENT
ASCAT IMAGERY.
   B. TY 27W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN LUZON NEAR TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, TY 27W WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS (25-30 KNOTS). NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WITH STEADY WEAKENING
THROUGH TAU 72. TY KALMAEGI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 UNDER STRONG
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


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18/06UTC FY2G. AB/PH
18/06UTC FY2G. AB/PH

18/06UTC
18/06UTC

18/0834UTC
18/0834UTC

18/0834UTC
18/0834UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 93KTS AT +18H
HWRF: 93KTS AT +18H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Novembre 2019 à 12:53