Typhoon Kalmaegi is approaching Northern Luzon



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 12:00 UTC Nov 18, 2019:
Location: 18.0°N 123.0°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH AN 18-20 NM
RAGGED EYE AND SPIRAL BANDING. THIS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IS EVIDENT
IN AN 181004Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR AND SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES,
A 181059Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS AND AN 181140Z ADT
ESTIMATE OF T4.6 (ABOUT 80 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TY 27W IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.         
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TY 27W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
TURN WESTWARD THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS LOW-LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND WEAKENS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS). TY 27W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND STRONG VWS. NEAR TAU 30, THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE WESTERN STR AND NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WITH DISSIPATION
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


18/1330UTC
18/1330UTC

CLICK TO ANIMATE
CLICK TO ANIMATE

18/1005UTC
18/1005UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 83KTS AT +18H
HWRF: 83KTS AT +18H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 18 Novembre 2019 à 18:28