Typhoon Kalmaegi: forecast landfall near Aparri within 12h. Invest 93W: Trop Cyclone Formation Alert



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 19, 2019:
Location: 19.0°N 122.4°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 27W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON AN OBLONG 20 NM PARTIAL EYE IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 182237Z SSMI/S
91 GHZ IMAGE. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND
ABOUT HALF OF THE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5-5.0 (55-90 KTS).
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) ARE OFFSETTING STRONG (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO MAKE
THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. TY 27W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY BETWEEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA TO THE WEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.  
   B. WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, TY 27W IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THE STR TO THE WEST BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER TAU 12, THE INTENSITY SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KTS) AND LAND INTERACTION.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN, STRONG CROSS TRACK AGREEMENT AND FAIR ALONG-TRACK
AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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INVEST 93W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 19, 2019:
Location: 13.0°N 133.4°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 182300
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 136.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 135.0E, APPROXIMATELY
830 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
OBSCURED BY POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. AN
181820Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
FURTHER SUPPORTING A BROAD LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH ECMWF BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ON DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21
PGTW 182200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
 



TY 27W: 19/0349UTC
TY 27W: 19/0349UTC

TY 27W: 19/0127UTC
TY 27W: 19/0127UTC


INVEST 93W: 18/22UTC
INVEST 93W: 18/22UTC

TY 27W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TY 27W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

27W: HWRF: 89KTS AT +12H
27W: HWRF: 89KTS AT +12H

INVEST 93W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 93W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 19 Novembre 2019 à 06:45