Typhoon Faxai(14W) decaying over the cooler waters of the Pacific Ocean



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY FAXAI (14W)
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 09, 2019:
Location: 37.3°N 142.5°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts : 80kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 181 NM NORTHEAST
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS TY 14W CONTINUES TO DECAY AS IT TRACKS EAST OF HONSHU INTO THE
COOLER WATERS OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER DEPICTED IN EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (RJTD) TO 4.5 (PGTW), REFLECTING THE CONTINUED
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING
(20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT)
WHILE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENING DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 24, TY
14W WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL
TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 09, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 138.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7N 149.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY
342 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
090355Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS)
OFFSET BY MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN ADDITION, SOUNDINGS
FROM PGUM INDICATE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW, FURTHER HINDERING
DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE AT 29-
30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASISTATIONARY MOTION THROUGH
TAU 48 WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
MEDIUM.
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INVEST 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Sep 09, 2019:

Location: 32.7°N 123.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 090600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
    B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.8N 125.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 124.0E, APPROXIMATELY
248 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, SOUTH KOREA. THIS SYSTEM IS
ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS LOCATED UNDER A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT AT 200MB AND 500MB.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION AND
BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A 090511Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED LLC WITH SHALLOW BANDING. A
090054Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30
KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS)
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK POLEWARD WITH
MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT BUT A LOW PROBABILITY FOR TRANSITIONING INTO A
WARM-CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

 



09/0530UTC
09/0530UTC

09/00UTC
09/00UTC

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 9 Septembre 2019 à 13:00