meteo





Tropical Cyclone formation Alert issued for Invest 91W and Invest 92W. Invest 90W: Medium



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 91W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 18.8°N 118.3°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WTPN21 PGTW 311900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 119.0E TO 18.2N 109.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 118.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E, APPROXIMATELY
295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311332Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ARC OF THE SYSTEM. A
311334Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD REGION OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS
THROUGH THE STRAIT OF LUZON, TAKING ON SOME CURVATURE NEAR THE LLCC.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (30-
32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HIGH SHEAR ARE CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
91W WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN BROAD AND CONTINUE TO
EXHIBIT CHARACTERISTICS OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011900Z.//
NNNN

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INVEST 92W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 9.5°N 130.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
WTPN22 PGTW 311930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311851Z AUG 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW
311900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.8N 131.4E TO 15.8N 125.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.5N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 332
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO CITY, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AMPLE FLARING CONVECTION OVER A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE (10-
20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO
FORMATIVE RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST ALONG THE PHILIPPINE COAST, HOWEVER THE
ECMWF AND UKMO DELAY THE ONSET OF 25 KNOT WINDS UNTIL CLOSER TO THE
48 HOUR MARK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
011930Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.3E.//
NNNN
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INVEST 90W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 31, 2019:
Location: 15.1°N 172.8°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 312000
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.7N 175.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 174.4E, APPROXIMATELY  
486 NM NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 311723Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ADEQUATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK BUT ARE SPLIT ON DEVELOPMENT
POTENTIAL, WITH GFS AND UKMO SHOW 90W BECOMING A COMPACT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AROUND TAU 48-72, WHILE NAVGEM AND ECMWF MAINTAIN IT AS A
WAVE WITH A SMALL REGION OF ENHANCED WINDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

 

INVEST 91W: TCFA
INVEST 91W: TCFA

INVEST 92W: TCFA
INVEST 92W: TCFA

31/19UTC INVEST 91W
31/19UTC INVEST 91W

31/19UTC INVEST 92W
31/19UTC INVEST 92W

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 92W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 1 Septembre 2019 à 00:54