TY 02W(SURIGAE), CAT1, has entered a high vertical wind shear zone// 29S(JOBO): recent convective bloom observed, 23/03utc update


29S(JOBO). 23/03UTC. 9H LOOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID UPS AND DOWNS. A RECENT BLOOM HAS BEEN OBSERVED APPRX 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM/TANZANIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.


29S(JOBO). 23/03UTC. 9H LOOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID UPS AND DOWNS. A RECENT BLOOM HAS BEEN OBSERVED APPRX 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM/TANZANIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
29S(JOBO). 23/03UTC. 9H LOOP. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID UPS AND DOWNS. A RECENT BLOOM HAS BEEN OBSERVED APPRX 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM/TANZANIA. CLICK TO ANIMATE IF NECESSARY.
2021 APR 23 0230UTC #WESTERNNORTHPACIFIC
TY #02W #SURIGAE
WARNING 39
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 23, 2021:
Location: 22.3°N 128.2°E
Maximum Winds: 80 kt (150km/h)
Gusts: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 972 mb
CATEGORY US: 1
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 23/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 470KM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 24 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TC #29S #JOBO #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 5
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 23, 2021:
Location: 9.2°S 43.9°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
LOCATED AT 23/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 575KM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 39 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.TY 02W (SURIGAE) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE  IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. ANIMATED  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CROSS SECTION DATA VERIFIES A SURGE IN DRY  AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH IS WRAPPING  TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CLOUD SHIELD  HAS SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT THE LOW LEVEL  VORTEX REMAINS INTACT.TY SURIGAE HAS  TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TWO SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TY  02W. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE STEERING OR  BAROTROPIC CORE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND  THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36H WHEN  THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TRACKING INTO THE  BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SECOND, MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE  OVER THE SYSTEM NEAR 48H AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY 72H, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO  COMPLETE ETT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AS VIGOROUS  GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW.
02W(SURIGAE). WARNING 39 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC.TY 02W (SURIGAE) IS TRACKING TOWARDS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CROSS SECTION DATA VERIFIES A SURGE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH IS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS SHEARED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC, BUT THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX REMAINS INTACT.TY SURIGAE HAS TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, TWO SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TY 02W. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ALTER THE STEERING OR BAROTROPIC CORE OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE LLCC TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36H WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TRACKING INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A SECOND, MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM NEAR 48H AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY 72H, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC AS VIGOROUS GALE FORCE MID-LATITUDE LOW.

02W(SURIGAE). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO INCREASINGLY BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, BUT THERE  CONTINUE TO BE VARIATIONS IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM  ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS  NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PLACING GOOD  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF ETT  COMPLETION.
02W(SURIGAE). MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO INCREASINGLY BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS, BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE VARIATIONS IN THE ALONG TRACK SPEEDS AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, PLACING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF ETT COMPLETION.

02W(SURIGAE). 23/0035UTC. GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT IS IN  GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP SATELLITE FIXES. THE  MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING  SUSTAINED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, INDICATING AN INCREASINGLY  ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD.
02W(SURIGAE). 23/0035UTC. GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, RJTD, AND RCTP SATELLITE FIXES. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SUSTAINED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, INDICATING AN INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD SHIELD.

02W(SURIGAE). 23/0250UTC.
02W(SURIGAE). 23/0250UTC.

02W(SURIGAE). TY SURIGAE HAS TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
02W(SURIGAE). TY SURIGAE HAS TRACKED INTO A ZONE OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FALLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.

29S(JOBO). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC. BOTH ENHANCED INFRARED  AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE  HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED  IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE  CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK  ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE  OF 49 KNOTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL  STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES  CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL  MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS  ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3 AND  10 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION. ONCE TC  JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
29S(JOBO). WARNING 5 ISSUED AT 23/03UTC. BOTH ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE OF 49 KNOTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 10 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION. ONCE TC JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND.

29S(JOBO). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN  SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA.
29S(JOBO). MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA.

29S(JOBO). 23/0118UTC. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 12HOURS.
29S(JOBO). 23/0118UTC. CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 12HOURS.

29S(JOBO). 22/2206UTC. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
29S(JOBO). 22/2206UTC. WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.

29S(JOBO).29S(JOBO). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.4 m/s (10.4 kts)Direction : 281.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .
29S(JOBO).29S(JOBO). 24H SHEAR TENDENCY.UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates: CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 5.4 m/s (10.4 kts)Direction : 281.9deg Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential: FAVOURABLE OVER 24H .
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 23 Avril 2021 à 07:56