TS Francisco(09W) near Sasebo in 24hours. Lekima(10W) typhoon in 72h. 95W: now on the charts



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 30.4°N 136.2°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 986 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAT REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND FAIR RADIAL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU
AROUND TAU 18, AND PASS NEAR SASEBO JUST AFTER TAU 24. SECOND
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR BUSAN, KOREA AROUND TAU 36 AS THE CYCLONE
STARTS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W WILL HAVE
ROUNDED THE STR AXIS, BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN, AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS OVER
JAPAN AND KOREA. BY THE TIME TS 09W EMERGES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN,
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 09W WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND
COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 96. DESPITE COOL SST AND HIGH VWS, THE
INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-
CORE LOW. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SPREAD IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INCREASES SLIGHTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED,
LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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TS LEKIMA(10W)

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:

Location: 18.8°N 130.1°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM
THE SOUTH. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED
USING THE MSI AND SHALLOW BANDING IN A 042238Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 10W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) THAT IS BEING DISTORTED BY TS 09W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS TS 09W MOVES AWAY AND THE STR
BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS VERY HIGH AS THREE
OUTLIERS (UKMET AND GALWEM TO THE NORTH, NAVGEM TO THE SOUTH) DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE REMAINING MEMBERS AND THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. AT TAU 72, SPREAD IS OVER 230 NM RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE
FORECAST TRACK, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ALLOW
INTENSITY TO REACH 90 KTS BY TAU 120. TRACK SPREAD EXCEEDS 950 NM BY
TAU 120, WITH MEMBERS PLACING THE CENTER BETWEEN CENTRAL CHINA AND
JUST SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS,
RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BASED ON
THE VERY HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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INVEST 95W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 17.1°N 145.2°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 041700
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 041109Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 041109Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE ELONGATED LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 KT WINDS MORE THAN 100
NM TO THE EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (32 TO 33 CELCIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SPLIT ON 95W WITH ALL SHOWING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION ON A NORTHWARD
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 30 TO 72 HOURS. OF NOTE, SOME MODELS SHOW 95W
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE OTHERS SHOW IT BEING ABSORBED INTO
10W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

09W: WARNING 14. FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR SASEBO SHORTLY AFTER 24H WITH NEAR 55KNOTS WINDS
09W: WARNING 14. FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR SASEBO SHORTLY AFTER 24H WITH NEAR 55KNOTS WINDS

10W: WARNING 5. PEAK INTENSITY OF 90KNOTS IN 120H.
10W: WARNING 5. PEAK INTENSITY OF 90KNOTS IN 120H.

INVEST 95W NOW LOW
INVEST 95W NOW LOW

05/02UTC
05/02UTC

05/0121UTC. LEKIMA(10W)
05/0121UTC. LEKIMA(10W)

05/02UTC. FRANCISCO(09W).
05/02UTC. FRANCISCO(09W).

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 5 Août 2019 à 06:21