meteo





TS DANAS(06W) should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of South Korea after 12hours


Warning 15/JTWC


WARNING 15/JTWC. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS AFTER 12HOURS.
WARNING 15/JTWC. INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 35KNOTS AFTER 12HOURS.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1817419381676514/

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS DANAS(06W)
As of 18:00 UTC Jul 19, 2019:

Location: 32.9°N 125.7°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 191753Z ATMS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
DEFINED CENTER WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED
BETWEEN THE 191703Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS, 191940Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 28 KNOTS AND MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS).
OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
191807Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE RADIUS OF MAX WINDS
CONTINUES TO BROADEN BASED ON A 191327Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING
30-35 KNOT WINDS SEPARATING FROM THE CENTER IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, A 191253Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ASYMMETRIC FIELD OF GALE FORCE WINDS STRETCHING SOUTH IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE FUELING THE PERSISTENT HEAVY CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN) AND
REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W IS TRACKING
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70NM AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION DUE TO THE BROAD
NATURE OF THE CENTER. AS TS 06W APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 12, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS
ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
TAU 36.//
NNNN

19/21UTC UPDATED POSITION
19/21UTC UPDATED POSITION


19/18UTC
19/18UTC

19/1327UTC
19/1327UTC

19/12UTC
19/12UTC

19/06UTC
19/06UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 20 Juillet 2019 à 02:18