meteo





TS DANAS(06W) is forecast to dissipate by 72hours over the mountainous terrain of South Korea


WARNING 10/JTWC


WARNING 10/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.
WARNING 10/JTWC. PEAK INTENSITY OF 45KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 24HOURS.
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS DANAS(06W)
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 18, 2019:

Location: 26.7°N 123.8°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 181231Z MHS 89GHZ
IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAGGED,
WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH, ALONG WITH A 181000Z RJTD RADAR FIX,
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE. A 180953Z WINDSAT IMAGE AND A 181226Z SCATSAT IMAGE CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A HIGHLY ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION AND EXTENSIVE GALE FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. TS 06W IS
TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED
ON THE WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN).
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR
AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND LANDFALL ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF KOREA. FURTHERMORE, THE EXPANSIVE GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DUE TO AN
ENHANCED GRADIENT WITH A STRONG HIGH TO THE EAST. TS 06W IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN
STEADILY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF KOREA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH A SPREAD OF 185NM AT TAU 48.//
NNNN

WARNING 10/JTWC
WARNING 10/JTWC

18/12UTC
18/12UTC

18/1226UTC
18/1226UTC

18/1110UTC
18/1110UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 18 Juillet 2019 à 20:10