meteo





TS Bailu tracking 45km to Penghu, landfall in China in approx 6h


Warning 14/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS BAILU(12W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 24, 2019:
Location: 23.4°N 119.1°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt (95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 166 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 241042Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A NOTCH FEATURE, INDICATING THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A CI OF T3.0
(45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE (10 TO 25 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 12W
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS THE PRIMARY
STEERING FEATURE. TS 12W WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA NEAR TAU 6,
CONTINUE TO TRACK INLAND, AND DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 12. LAND INTERACTION WITH CHINA WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO QUICKLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 20
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
24. AS TS 12W DISSIPATES, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BY TAU 36.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN



24/1305UTC
24/1305UTC


24/12UTC
24/12UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 24 Août 2019 à 19:08