TS Bailu intensifying to Typhoon intensity within 24h, landfall over Taiwan shortly after 36h


Warning 6/JTWC


Météo974

M974World


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS BAILU(12W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 22, 2019:
Location: 16.9°N 127.9°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
INTENSIFYING

WDPN31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 12W (BAILU) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (BAILU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 576 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 221204Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED, BUT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH INDICATES 45 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 12W IS EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 12W ALSO HAS A
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHILE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL HAS STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TS 12W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE SHORT TERM, TS 12W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TS 12W TO
REACH 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, BAILU WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN TAIWAN AS THE STR BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.
BAILU WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN CHINA NEAR TAU 60. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DUE TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. LAND INTERACTION WITH CHINA
WILL CAUSE TS 12W TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 20 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SPREAD OF 610 NM BY TAU 96. HOWEVER,
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A
SPREAD OF 320 NM. GFS AND NAVGEM ARE OUTLIERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE
JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE CLUSTERING OF THE
MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS AT TAU 96, THERE IS NOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


22/1319UTC
22/1319UTC

 


22/1245UTC
22/1245UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 22 Août 2019 à 20:55