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TS 14W and TS Lingling(15W) gradually intensifying. Invest 91W update


14W: Warning 4/JTWC. 15W: Warning 3/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 14W
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 16.6°N 164.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts : 45kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 14W (FOURTEEN) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (FOURTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) TO THE NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 021034Z METOP-C
PASS SHOWS 30-35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THE EIR AND METOP-C PASS, A 020953Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE METOP-C PASS AND THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). LIGHT (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 CELSIUS) MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TS 14W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TS 14W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD, SLOW AND FAIRLY STEADY INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED AS THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE OVERALL DESPITE
FLUCTUATING VWS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE NAVGEM TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE OTHER
MEMBERS, THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TS 14W
NORTHWESTWARD, PASSING NORTH OF IWO TO AFTER TAU 96. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS, MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK. A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW THE INTENSITY TO REACH 80 KTS AT TAU 120
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH AIDS RANGING FROM 75-125 KTS
INTENSITY AT TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST ABOVE
THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE (EXCLUDING COAMPS-GFS, WHICH
IS 125 KTS AT TAU 120). TO OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

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TS LINGLING ( 15W)
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 17.9°N 124.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W (LINGLING) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (LINGLING), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 548 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WIDESPREAD, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN
ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH WAS PLACED USING THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 021021Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 CELSIUS), AND GOOD
POLEWARD AND EQUATOR OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TS 15W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. AROUND TAU 36, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SLIGHTLY REORIENT THE STR AND CAUSE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL RETAIN A LARGELY POLEWARD TRACK. THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72, ALLOWING FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KTS. THIS MOST RECENT MODEL RUN TRIGGERED A
FEW RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATORS AND THE NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION RATE IS HIGHER TO RESPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. PRIOR TO TAU 72, THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY THAT VWS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. IF THAT WERE TO
OCCUR, THEN TS 15W COULD BEGIN WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STR AND THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN TS 15W ON A GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BE ON THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH
KOREA, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED. COOLER SST,
HIGH VWS, AND EVENTUALLY LAND INTERACTION WILL MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
UNFAVORABLE AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS TS 15W
TRAVERSES THE KOREAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY, NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS, CLOSER TO THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK SPEED.//
NNNN

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 91W
As of 12:00 UTC Sep 02, 2019:
Location: 17.7°N 108.5°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 020600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 118.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY
84 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CASTING DENSE
OVERCAST OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING
CONVECTION IN BANDING ON THE NORTH SIDE. THIS DEPICTION OF THE
BANDING IS REINFORCED IN BOTH THE HAIKOU RADAR LOOP AND A 020206Z
MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. A 020249Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A PARTIAL DEPICTION OF THE LLCC DUE TO LAND INTERFERENCE;
HOWEVER, IT DOES REVEAL THE ASYMMETRIC NATURE OF THE WIND FIELD WITH
A SWATH OF 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS ON THE FAR SIDE OF HAINAN FROM THE
LLCC. 91W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL PERSIST IN AND AROUND THE GULF OF
TONKIN AS AN EXPANSIVE MONSOON DEPRESSION BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
WITHIN THE NEXT 60 HOURS, AT WHICH POINT, MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CHINESE COAST AND CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW
011900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

14W: WARNING 4
14W: WARNING 4

15W: WARNING 3
15W: WARNING 3

02/1730UTC. RAMMB
02/1730UTC. RAMMB

14W: 02/12UTC
14W: 02/12UTC

15W: 02/12UTC
15W: 02/12UTC

INVEST 91W: 02/1432UTC
INVEST 91W: 02/1432UTC

14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
14W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
15W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 91W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 2 Septembre 2019 à 21:18