meteo





TS 07W is now analysed as a minimal tropical storm but not expected to intensify significantly


Warning 3/JTWC


WARNING 3: INTENSITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AT 35KNOTS
WARNING 3: INTENSITY HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AT 35KNOTS
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS 07W
As of 12:00 UTC Jul 25, 2019:

Location: 27.5°N 137.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07 (SEVEN) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
AGENCY SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 250858Z SSMIS PASS, WHICH SHOWS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON A 251119Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS INDICATING AN EXTENSIVE
AREA OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. TS 07W HAS ACCELERATED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. PERSISTENT,
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST HAS KEPT DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM
CIRCULATION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND STRONG
EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT HAVE COUNTERED THE IMPACT OF
THE PERSISTENT VWS, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING.
   B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 36, AND
SUBSEQUENTLY TURN EASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE AXIS. PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SHOULD
ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS AND PASSAGE OVER
LAND WILL INDUCE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING.
   C. TS 07W WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO PASSAGE OVER LAND AND
COOL WATER, AS WELL AS INCREASING VWS. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AS IT DISSIPATES,
SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

25/1430UTC
25/1430UTC

25/1121UTC. PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS
25/1121UTC. PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS


TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 25 Juillet 2019 à 18:47