TD 29W and TC Rita(01P): updates at 26/03UTC



Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TD 29W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 26, 2019:
Location: 10.1°N 149.8°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (TWENTYNINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH VERY EXPANSIVE (OVER 800NM ACROSS), ALBEIT SHALLOW AND
FRAGMENTED, RAIN BANDS FEEDING INTO A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS ON THE MSI AND
INTERPOLATING FROM CLOSELY-CLUSTERED AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES (T1.5/25KTS-T2.5/35KTS) AND REFLECTS THE
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. ANALYSES REVEAL A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE, AND VERY WARM (>30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STR UP TO
TAU 36, PASSING APPROXIMATELY 160NM SOUTH OF GUAM. AFTERWARD, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR
AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 90KTS BY TAU 72.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 29W WILL SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS
THE COL BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY, BUILDING STR TO THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AND
PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO OVER 600NM BY TAU 120.
THIS, PLUS THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN



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SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTH PACIFIC

TC RITA ( 01P)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 26, 2019:
Location: 14.2°S 170.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 170.0E.
26NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED A SMALL
SIZED CENTRAL OVERCAST FEATURE WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION. RAIN
BANDS ARE SHORT AND WEAK. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252156Z 25KM RESOLUTION ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE TC IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD. ANALYSES INDICATE A DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CYCLONE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS
WIDELY SPREAD. NAVGEM IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER OFFERING A DIAMETRICALLY
OPPOSITE TRACK EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z, AND
270900Z.//
NNNN

TD 29W: FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 5 DAYS
TD 29W: FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY NEXT 5 DAYS

TC 01P: WEAKENING
TC 01P: WEAKENING

29W: 26/00UTC
29W: 26/00UTC

29W: 25/18UTC
29W: 25/18UTC

01P: 26/00UTC
01P: 26/00UTC


01P: 25/2156UTC
01P: 25/2156UTC

29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
29W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

29W: HWRF: 113KTS AT +108H
29W: HWRF: 113KTS AT +108H

01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
01P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

01P: HWRF: 62KTS AT +0H
01P: HWRF: 62KTS AT +0H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 26 Novembre 2019 à 07:42