TC 20S(FERDINAND): CAT 2 US near peak intensity. Over-land TC 19P(ESTHER): 26/03UTC update



TC 20S. ANIMATION. 03UTC. CLICK TO ANIMATE.

TC 20S(FERDINAND) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2020:
Location: 15.8°S 115.5°E
Maximum Winds: 95 kt ( 175km/h)
Gusts: 115 kt ( 215km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 963 mb
CATEGORY US: 2

TPXS10 PGTW 260336
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (FERDINAND)
B. 26/0300Z
C. 15.94S
D. 115.33E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0. MET AND AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   25/2238Z  15.90S  115.72E  SSMS
RICHARDSON
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 115.4E.
26FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20S (FERDINAND), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 398 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 252238Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 20 NM
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITHIN A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. SET AT 95 KTS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0-5.5
(90-102 KTS) BY PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. THIS IS SET HIGHER THAN A
260030Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.9 (87 KTS) AND A
252235Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS WHICH SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND
WITHIN THE SYSTEM. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTRIBUTE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, EASTERLY
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P, LOCATED 1040 NM TO
THE EAST, IS APPLYING SOME PRESSURE TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF TC 20S.
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST IS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM FOR TC 20S. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. THEN, AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL
BUILD IN, STEERING TC 20S WESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 20S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AND NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, WITH FULL
DISSIPATION OVER WATER OCCURRING BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS ARE THE
GALWEM AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS. GALWEM PRESENTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK WHILE NAVGEM TURNS TC 20S SOUTHWARD THEN BACK EASTWARD AS TC
20S INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P WHICH IS TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LARGE A SPREAD
WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. ECMWF AND UKMET ENSEMBLE ALSO SHOW THE
EASTWARD TURN AFTER TAU 48 AND 96, RESPECTIVELY. CONVERSELY, THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOLLOW A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK PRIOR TO CURVING NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE
VARIATION IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS
27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER) FINAL WARNING (WTPS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

OVERLAND TC 19P(ESTHER) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2020:

Location: 16.5°S 133.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
TPXS11 PGTW 260336
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (ESTHER)
B. 26/0300Z
C. 16.53S
D. 132.58E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. N/A
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO
LLCC OVER LAND.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
 RICHARDSON
ABIO10 PGTW 251800
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 19P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 135.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 134.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250945Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT THAT THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION DESPITE BEING
OVER LAND, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P ARE EXPERIENCING
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST PRIOR TO TURNING TO A SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.


 

TC 20S: WARNING 10. ASSESSED TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY


 

TC 20S: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


OVERLAND TC 19P: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE


25/1730UTC


TC 20S.25/2213UTC


TC 20S.25/2239UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 26 Février 2020 à 08:51