TC 01P(LOLA) one of the strongest October Cyclones for the Southern Hemisphere: CAT 4 US//2403utc

JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ON 05A , 06B AND 01P.

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) HAS GENERALLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES EVEN ROSE SLIGHTLY TO AN AVERAGE OF AROUND 120 KT, WHICH IS THE ASSESSED INITIAL INTENSITY. DURING THE MOST RECENT COUPLE OF HOURS, THERE ARE SIGNS THAT COOLER WATERS MAY BE STARTING TO AFFECT THE STORM, WITH THE EYE BECOMING A BIT RAGGED AND THE COLD RING WARMING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS ASSESSED AT OVER 30 KT BY MODEL ANALYSES DUE TO A SHIFT IN ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW FROM LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES TO MID- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT, BUT THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTING THE INNER CORE JUST YET.

FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: CYCLONE 01P (LOLA) IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. LOLA HAS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AND SHOULD SOON BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF COOLER UNDERLYING WATER AND STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. A BELT OF 30-40 KT ENVIRONMENTAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 250-400MB LAYER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE CORAL SEA IS EXPECTED BY ALL NUMERICAL MODELS TO CAUSE FULL DECOUPLING OF THE VORTEX IN 24-36 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST THUS SHOWS DRAMATIC WEAKENING TO UNDER WARNING THRESHOLD BY 72 HOURS AS LOLA TRACKS THROUGH THE ISLANDS OF VANUATU AND TURNS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC AND NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SOME CROSS-TRACK SPREAD EXISTS AROUND 48-72 HOURS DUE TO VARIABILITY IN HOW QUICKLY THE VORTEX DECOUPLES AND SURRENDERS TO THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.