Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012024 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    169.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   120.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.8  43.1  44.6  42.4  43.1  40.1  47.3  47.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  13.0   9.0   3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.5  24.4  20.5  16.6   7.7  -6.4 -13.3 -15.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  48.0  36.0  28.0  -4.0 -19.0 -19.0 -25.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  49.0  40.0  37.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -27.0 -32.0 -25.0 -19.0 -21.0 -12.0  -8.0 -14.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        0.0%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 SH012024 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -14.50    169.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   120.