TC 01A(TAUKTAE). 16/14UTC. 12H LOOP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DEEP COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED 31KM EYE.
2021 MAY 16 14UTC #NORTHINDIAN
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 10
As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 16.8°N 72.6°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 16/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 250KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 5.8°S 76.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOCATED AT 16/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 425KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC #01A #TAUKTAE #ARABIANSEA
WARNING 10
As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 16.8°N 72.6°E
Maximum Winds: 100 kt ( 185km/h)
Gusts: 125 kt ( 230km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 16/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 250KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 17 KM/H
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90S #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC May 16, 2021:
Location: 5.8°S 76.0°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb
LOCATED AT 16/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 425KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: LOW
Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
M974World
ILES SOEURS
Cyclone Class 4
Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
TC 01A(TAUKTAE). WARNING 10 ISSUED AT 16/15UTC.THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH 24H ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), FUELED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS/US CAT 3. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR, ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, BETWEEN 24H AND 36H. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN BEFORE COMPLETING DISSIPATION BY 72H, POSSIBLY SOONER.
TC 01A. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 100KM AT 24H, ONLY INCREASING THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO A MERE 275KM BY 72H. TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO 48H AND WANES SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, CLOSER TO ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE.
TC 01A. 16/14UTC.
TC 01A. 16/1315UTC.
TC 01A. 16/1116UTC. DMSP VISIBLE.
INVEST 90S. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10- 20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 90S WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE REMAINING ELONGATED WITH A MARGINAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 01A AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. INVEST 90S IS NOW ON THE MAP: LOW CHANCES OF HAVING 35KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO ITS CENTER WITHIN 24HOURS.
