Super Typhoon Hagibis, category 5, intensity peaking within 12/24hours



FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS VERY CLOSE TO ANATAHAN
FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS VERY CLOSE TO ANATAHAN
Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

STY HAGIBIS(20W)
As of 12:00 UTC Oct 07, 2019:

Location: 16.1°N 146.7°E
Maximum Winds: 140 kt ( 260km/h)
Gusts: 170 kt ( 315km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 920 mb
CATEGORY 5 US

WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS)
WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH COMPACT AND
SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYEWALL SURROUNDING A PINHOLE 5NM EYE. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, CONTINUE TO WRAP
VERY TIGHTLY TOWARD THE EYEWALL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY STRONG EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD BIASES
ENHANCED BY LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SST VALUES AT
29-30C AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140KTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140KTS FROM
PGTW AND RCTP. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. STY 20W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 150KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS WILL TEMPER THE INTENSITY DOWN TO 125KTS BY TAU 72, JUST BELOW
STY CATEGORY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL
AND EVEN SPREAD TO 155NM BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STY HAGIBIS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS
IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER JAPAN. INCREASING VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL OFFSET
THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 120 AS IT IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 310NM AT
TAU 120; THIS PLUS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS LEND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN


PEAK INTENSITY OF 150KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H
PEAK INTENSITY OF 150KNOTS FORECAST WITHIN 12H

07/1330UTC
07/1330UTC

07/1417UTC
07/1417UTC

07/1210UTC
07/1210UTC

07/12UTC
07/12UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 140KT AT +24H
HWRF: 140KT AT +24H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 7 Octobre 2019 à 18:24