Southern Hemisphere: the JTWC is monitoring 4 systems at once, 23P(NIRAN), 22S(MARIAN), 24S(HABANA) and Invest 91S. 04/15utc updates


04/15UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS NOW ON THE MAP ASSESSED AS CURRENTLY HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.


04/15UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS NOW ON THE MAP ASSESSED AS CURRENTLY HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
04/15UTC. THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS NOW ON THE MAP ASSESSED AS CURRENTLY HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
2021 MAR 04 15UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #23P #NIRAN  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
WARNING 15
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 15.4°S 150.4°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 964mb
CATEGORY US: 2
LOCATED AT 04/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 520KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
 Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #22S #MARIAN  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 14
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 21.8°S 93.9°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt (85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
WEAKENING
LOCATED AT 04/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 1100KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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TC #24S #HABANA  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 1
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 16.4°S 72.5°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 04/12UTC APPROXIMATELY  1035KM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
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INVEST #91S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #MOZAMBIQUECHANNEL
UPDATE
As of 12:00 UTC Mar 04, 2021:
Location: 17.2°S 42.2°E
Maximum Winds: 25 kt
Gusts: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb
LOCATED AT 04/12UTC APPROXIMATELY 250KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BESALAMPY , MADAGASCAR.

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23P(NIRAN). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC. AS THE RECENT JOG TO THE EAST INDICATES, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK  STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST  AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW  HOURS HOWEVER, THE NER SHOULD GAIN PREDOMINANCE AS THE PRIMARY  STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. ONCE  ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, TC 23P WILL STEADILY  ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN  THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE MAJOR  SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED  TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS US/CATEGORY 3 BY 24H AS IT ENTERS A SHORT  PERIOD OF VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR. THIS  INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND BY 36H, THE STEADILY  INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEAS WILL CONSPIRE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS  IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN  SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48H AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM  FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY 72H.
23P(NIRAN). WARNING 15 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC. AS THE RECENT JOG TO THE EAST INDICATES, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER, THE NER SHOULD GAIN PREDOMINANCE AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, RESULTING IN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. ONCE ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, TC 23P WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS US/CATEGORY 3 BY 24H AS IT ENTERS A SHORT PERIOD OF VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR. THIS INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND BY 36H, THE STEADILY INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEAS WILL CONSPIRE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT RAPIDLY TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 48H AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY 72H.

 

23P(NIRAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24H WITH SPREAD OF ONLY 90KM, INCREASING TO  260KM BY 48H. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NEW CALEDONIA AND BEGINS TO  TRANSITION TO SUBTROPICAL, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY  UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS (NVGM) UNREALISTICALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM  WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE  CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AFTER 72H, AS  A STRONG TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND.  THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE  CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER 48H. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN  THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE  EXTENDED FORECAST.
23P(NIRAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24H WITH SPREAD OF ONLY 90KM, INCREASING TO 260KM BY 48H. AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NEW CALEDONIA AND BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO SUBTROPICAL, THE GUIDANCE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MODELS (NVGM) UNREALISTICALLY MOVING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ZEALAND, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AFTER 72H, AS A STRONG TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ZEALAND. THE JTWC LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER 48H. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


23P(NIRAN). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE THAT WAS SO CLEARLY EVIDENT SIX  HOURS AGO HAS NOW COMPLETELY FILLED. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS ALSO DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF  DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, AS  CONFIRMED BY A 101142Z AMSU-B 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A  CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND A ONLY LOW LEVEL BANDS  WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SATELLITE DATA ALSO CONFIRMS A  MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, INDICATED BY THE SHARP UP-SHEAR  (EASTERN) EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ANIMATED RADAR  DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND CONFIRMED THE RECENT EASTWARD JOG OF THE LOW  LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE  INITIAL POSITION.
23P(NIRAN). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE THAT WAS SO CLEARLY EVIDENT SIX HOURS AGO HAS NOW COMPLETELY FILLED. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS ALSO DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS, AS CONFIRMED BY A 101142Z AMSU-B 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWING A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND A ONLY LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE SATELLITE DATA ALSO CONFIRMS A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR, INDICATED BY THE SHARP UP-SHEAR (EASTERN) EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE. ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM WILLIS ISLAND CONFIRMED THE RECENT EASTWARD JOG OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.


22S(MARIAN). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR:7/12KNOTS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD OVER WATERS LESS  THAN 26C WHICH IS SERVING TO CUT OFF ITS ENERGY SOURCE AND PUT A CAP  ON ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY  WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ULTIMATELY INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD  ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER  CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH  48H. AFTER 48H, AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, IT WILL START TO  TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL TRANSIENT RIDGE TO THE  SOUTH TAKES OVER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.
22S(MARIAN). WARNING 14 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC.THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR:7/12KNOTS. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING POLEWARD OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C WHICH IS SERVING TO CUT OFF ITS ENERGY SOURCE AND PUT A CAP ON ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ULTIMATELY INTENSITY FALLING BELOW 35KNOTS BY 72H. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH 48H. AFTER 48H, AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES, IT WILL START TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL TRANSIENT RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TAKES OVER THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.


22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT SPREAD  INCREASES AFTER 48H WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE  DISSIPATION AND WHEN THE STEERING SWITCHES TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW,  LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.
22S(MARIAN). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT SPREAD INCREASES AFTER 48H WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION AND WHEN THE STEERING SWITCHES TO THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST.


22S(MARIAN). 04/1231UTC.WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
22S(MARIAN). 04/1231UTC.WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

24S(HABANA).WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC.THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE  (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER  INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND  MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING  GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH 72H, WITH SOME EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION  BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE NER TO THE NORTH RECEDES TO THE WEST. AFTER  72H, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WHILE TURNING TO TOWARDS THE  SOUTH AS THE NER MOVES FURTHER WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)  BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN  FAVORABLE THROUGH 48H, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION  TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY 48H. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF TC  24S BY 72H AND DISRUPT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND  INCREASE VERTICAL WINS SHEAR, LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE  REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
24S(HABANA).WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 04/15UTC.THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). TC 24S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH 72H, WITH SOME EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION BETWEEN 36H AND 72H AS THE NER TO THE NORTH RECEDES TO THE WEST. AFTER 72H, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW WHILE TURNING TO TOWARDS THE SOUTH AS THE NER MOVES FURTHER WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH 48H, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH, ALLOWING FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY 48H. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS SOUTH OF TC 24S BY 72H AND DISRUPT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INCREASE VERTICAL WINS SHEAR, LEADING TO A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.


24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 24H, THOUGH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALL CONCURS ON THE  GENERAL SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN  EDGE OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY GFS LYING FURTHER  EQUATORWARD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF  UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST  AND SOUTH AND THE SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON MOVEMENT OF TC 24S. WITH 110  KM SPREAD AT 48H INCREASING TO 330 KM BY 120H, THERE IS  OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.
24S(HABANA). NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 24H, THOUGH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALL CONCURS ON THE GENERAL SCENARIO. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY GFS LYING FURTHER EQUATORWARD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND THE SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON MOVEMENT OF TC 24S. WITH 110 KM SPREAD AT 48H INCREASING TO 330 KM BY 120H, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.


24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND  ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY  IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTION WRAPPING  INTO A SMALL CORE REGION. A 041147Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE  DEPICTED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH WAS ALSO PRESENT,  THOUGH PRESENTED AS A WEAKER SIGNATURE, IN THE 37GHZ BAND. THE  MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE WITH  GOOD EFFECT AND OVERALL LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL  POSITION.
24S(HABANA). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) AND ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH WELL DEFINED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SMALL CORE REGION. A 041147Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH WAS ALSO PRESENT, THOUGH PRESENTED AS A WEAKER SIGNATURE, IN THE 37GHZ BAND. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE WITH GOOD EFFECT AND OVERALL LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.

INVEST 91S. A 040650UTC METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS)  WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE  ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10  TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S  WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION,  POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA(35KNOTS), BEFORE MOVING OVER  MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) AFTER  MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN.
INVEST 91S. A 040650UTC METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF ELEVATED (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. 91S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, POSSIBLY JUST REACHING WARNING CRITERIA(35KNOTS), BEFORE MOVING OVER MADAGASCAR, REINTENSIFYING AND ATTAINING WARNING THRESHOLD(35KNOTS) AFTER MOVING BACK OUT TO SEA IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 4 Mars 2021 à 19:30