South Indian: cyclone LILI(26S) getting a little bit stronger, potential threat to East Timor with heavy rain and strong winds


Warning 2/JTWC


WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC
https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
https://www.meteo974.re/

Previous related publications:  https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-cyclone-LILI-26S-has-formed-near-Timor-potential-threat-of-strong-winds-and-heavy-rain-to-the-island_a807.html
https://www.meteo974.re/South-Indian-INVEST-93S-development-likely-next-24hours_a800.html

TC LILI(26S)
As of 12:00 UTC May 09, 2019:

Location: 9.1°S 128.9°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb

REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 128.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
091244Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS
35-40 KNOT WINDS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT POSITION AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT. TC LILI IS
FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE
SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST TIMOR NEAR TAU 36. TC 26S WILL
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT WILL WEAKEN
STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO TRACK POLEWARD DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
NNNN

WARNING 2/JTWC
WARNING 2/JTWC

1218UTC
1218UTC

12UTC
12UTC

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S

GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
GUIDANCE(MODELS) FOR TC 26S
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 9 Mai 2019 à 21:22