South Indian: 07S(CLAUDIA) forecast to reach Typhoon intensity within 12hours



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TC 07S (CLAUDIA) SOUTH INDIAN
As of 06:00 UTC Jan 12, 2020:
Location: 14.4°S 122.4°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 121.6E.
12JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
210 NM NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP
TIGHTLY AROUND THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED NATURE OF
THE LLCC PLACES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KTS, HEDGED BETWEEN A 120548Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 62 KTS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES AND T3.5 (55KTS) BY APRF. TC 07S REMAINS IN
AN AREA OF WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH NEUTRAL
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NEAR 20 KTS; HOWEVER,
THE SHEAR IS IN-PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM?S MOTION AND THUS THE IMPACT ON
TC 07S IS LIMITED. TC 07S IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MAINTAINING AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 07S IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THIS STR WILL
ACT AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS TC 07S TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL TRANSIT THROUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS UNTIL AROUND TAU 30 WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO ITS STEADY INTENSIFICATION. FOLLOWING THAT, THE ALONG-
TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY COOL AND CAUSE TC 07S TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, MODEL SPREAD HAS BEEN
INCREASING AS TWO NOTABLE OUTLIERS HAVE EMERGED: GFS TO THE NORTH AND
NAVGEM TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THESE OUTLIERS, THERE IS STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
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WARNING 4. PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST/ 80KNOTS(CAT 1 US) IN 24H


 

01/12 06UTC. FY2G. A.BANKS ENHANCED BY P.HOAREAU


 

01/12 0820UTC: DMSP


 

MODEL SPREAD HAS BEEN INCREASING FOR THE PAST 12H BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE TRACK FORECAST


 

01/12 00UTC

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 12 Janvier 2020 à 13:29