South China Sea: INVEST 92W : Tropical Cyclone Formation alert issued


TCFA/JTWC


TCFA/JTWC
TCFA/JTWC
Météo974
M974World


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 92W
As of 00:00 UTC Jul 30, 2019:

Location: 17.9°N 117.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt ( 40km/h)
Gusts:
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb

WTPN21 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0N 116.6E TO 20.0N 113.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 116.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 116.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 116.3E, APPROXIMATELY
381 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTH OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291314Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD, WEAK LLCC WITH A LARGE REGION OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. 92W IS CURRENTLY
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (26
TO 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSETTING MARGINAL (15 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 92W WILL TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HAINAN AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
NNNN

INVEST 92W IS HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. INVEST 93W IS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.
INVEST 92W IS HIGH FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS. INVEST 93W IS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS.

30/0130UTC
30/0130UTC


29/21UTC
29/21UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

TRACK GUIDANCE
TRACK GUIDANCE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 30 Juillet 2019 à 05:57