SOUTH PACIFIC: 23P(NIRAN), rapid intensification up to US/Category 4 within 12hours, rapidly approaching NCaledonia area, 05/03utc update


23P(NIRAN). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT EYE (19KM) FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.


23P(NIRAN). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT EYE (19KM) FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
23P(NIRAN). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT EYE (19KM) FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF NEEDED CLICK TO ANIMATE.
2021 MAR 05 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #23P #NIRAN  #SOUTHPACIFICOCEAN #CORALSEA
WARNING 17
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 05, 2021:
Location: 16.7°S 154.6°E
Maximum Winds: 110 kt ( 205km/h)
Gusts: 135 kt ( 250km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 945mb
CATEGORY US: 3
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 05/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 940KM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
40 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
 Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS


Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

23P(NIRAN). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 05/03UTC. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION  WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC  23P IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FEATURE FOR  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHILE TC 23P MAINTAINS ITS FAVORABLE  ENIVONRMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 125 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 12H BEFORE FALLING STEEPLY TO 75 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 AT 36H AS TC 23P ENCOUNTERS  HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL  SUPPORT ALONG ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN  SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 36H AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM  FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY 72H.
23P(NIRAN). WARNING 17 ISSUED AT 05/03UTC. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW VERITCAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 23P IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ALONG THIS FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WHILE TC 23P MAINTAINS ITS FAVORABLE ENIVONRMENT, IT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY UP TO 125 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 4 BY 12H BEFORE FALLING STEEPLY TO 75 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 1 AT 36H AS TC 23P ENCOUNTERS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS) AND DECREASED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG ITS TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 23P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY 36H AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE SUBTROPICAL LOW BY 72H.

23P(NIRAN). NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24H, INCREASING TO AN ALONG TRACK  SPREAD OF 1110KM BY 72H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY  NORTH OF CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER 48H. WHILE THERE IS HIGH  CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW  CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW  CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE  OF THE SYSTEM.
23P(NIRAN). NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 24H, INCREASING TO AN ALONG TRACK SPREAD OF 1110KM BY 72H. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF CONSENSUS MEAN TRACK AFTER 48H. WHILE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

23P(NIRAN). 05/0230UTC. TIGHT (19KM) EYE FEATURE.
23P(NIRAN). 05/0230UTC. TIGHT (19KM) EYE FEATURE.

23P(NIRAN). 04/2248UTC.INTENSITY SPIKE FROM 04/18UTC TO 05/00UTC: 95KNOTS TO 110KNOTS.
23P(NIRAN). 04/2248UTC.INTENSITY SPIKE FROM 04/18UTC TO 05/00UTC: 95KNOTS TO 110KNOTS.

23P(NIRAN). 04/2020UTC. COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONE.
23P(NIRAN). 04/2020UTC. COMPACT AND WELL ORGANIZED CYCLONE.

05/03UTC.THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS  ASSESSED AS CURRENTLY HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
05/03UTC.THE JTWC IS ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 23P(NIRAN) AND 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON 22S(MARIAN) AND 24S(HABANA). 3 HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE ISSUED FOR THE 3 SYSTEMS. INVEST 91S IS ASSESSED AS CURRENTLY HAVING LOW CHANCES OF REACHING 35KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 5 Mars 2021 à 07:35