SOUTH INDIAN: intensifying TC 22S forecast to reach US/Category 1 by 24hours, 26/03utc update


TC 22S. 26/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK IF NEEDED TO ANIMATE.


TC 22S. 26/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED  WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION  CENTER. CLICK IF NEEDED TO ANIMATE.
TC 22S. 26/02UTC. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED WITH FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CLICK IF NEEDED TO ANIMATE.
2021 FEB 26 03UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #22S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN #WESTERNAUSTRALIA
WARNING 1
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2021:
Location: 14.2°S 100.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 999 mb
INTENSIFYING
LOCATED AT 26/00UTC APPROXIMATELY 460KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND/AUSTRALIA  HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 43 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS

Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

TC 22S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 26/03UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE  SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO  MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA  SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO  ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION  PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 NEAR 48H. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO  PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH  THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE  SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE  SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO  THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE  MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU  120H.
TC 22S. WARNING 1 ISSUED AT 26/03UTC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM RESIDING EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ENVELOPED IN A SMALL REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND OVERALL INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS/CATEGORY 1 NEAR 48H. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PROCEED ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE STR TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TURN AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS, THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 120H.

 

TC 22S. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 165KM  THROUGH 24H, INCREASING TO 520 KM BY 96H. DUE TO THE HIGHER  SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS LOW  CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID  SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM.
TC 22S. THE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 165KM THROUGH 24H, INCREASING TO 520 KM BY 96H. DUE TO THE HIGHER SPREAD IN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE EUROPEAN MODELING GUIDANCE OVER THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER OF NAVGEM.


INVEST 98S BEFORE BEING NUMBERED TC 22S. 25/18UTC. NPP MOONLIGHT VISIBLE.
INVEST 98S BEFORE BEING NUMBERED TC 22S. 25/18UTC. NPP MOONLIGHT VISIBLE.

TC 22S. 25/2303UTC.
TC 22S. 25/2303UTC.


22S. 25/2303UTC.
22S. 25/2303UTC.

26/03UTC. INVEST 98S IS UP-GRADED TO TC 22S. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. INVEST 94P REMAINS LOW.
26/03UTC. INVEST 98S IS UP-GRADED TO TC 22S. JTWC IS ISSUING 12HOURLY WARNINGS ON TC 22S AND 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS. INVEST 94P REMAINS LOW.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 26 Février 2021 à 07:30