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SOUTH INDIAN: Final warning issued for 18S whereas Invest 90S is up-graded to HIGH, 05/06utc update


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S(EIGHTEEN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND INVEST 90S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 17P(LUCAS) AT 04/1140UTC. INVEST 90S WAS UP-GRADED TO MEDIUM AT 05/0115UTC AND EVENTUALLY TO HIGH AT 05/0530UTC.


JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S(EIGHTEEN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND INVEST 90S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 17P(LUCAS) AT 04/1140UTC.
JTWC HAS BEEN ISSUING 6HOURLY WARNINGS ON 18S(EIGHTEEN). 3HOURLY SATELLITE BULLETINS ARE PROVIDED FOR 18S AND INVEST 90S. THEY WERE DISCONTINUED FOR THE REMNANTS OF 17P(LUCAS) AT 04/1140UTC.
2021 FEB 05 0555UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #18S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 19/FINAL
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 05, 2021:
Location: 25.1°S 112.3°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt (65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt (85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST #90S  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
UPDATE
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 05, 2021:
Location: 12.6°S 81.4°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb
CURRENT POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24HOURS: UP-GRADED TO HIGH
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

18S((EIGHTEEN). WARNING 19/FINAL. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS (30-45 KNOTS). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO FULL TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD UNDER OVER COOLING SEAS.THE SYSTEM SPENT THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ITS LIFETIME OVER-LAND. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 35KNOTS.
18S((EIGHTEEN). WARNING 19/FINAL. TC 18S WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OF THE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH INCREASING VWS (30-45 KNOTS). TC 18S IS EXPECTED TO FULL TRANSITION INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD UNDER OVER COOLING SEAS.THE SYSTEM SPENT THE LARGE MAJORITY OF ITS LIFETIME OVER-LAND. PEAK INTENSITY WAS 35KNOTS.
JMV FILE
1821012818 159S1266E  15
1821012900 164S1261E  15
1821012906 168S1258E  20
1821012912 172S1256E  20
1821012918 176S1254E  20
1821013000 179S1251E  25
1821013006 183S1246E  30
1821013012 187S1240E  30
1821013018 192S1235E  30
1821013100 201S1229E  30
1821013106 210S1223E  30
1821013112 214S1211E  30
1821013118 213S1202E  30
1821020100 207S1194E  30
1821020106 206S1190E  30
1821020112 211S1181E  30
1821020118 215S1171E  30
1821020200 222S1163E  30
1821020206 229S1157E  30
1821020212 236S1151E  30
1821020218 240S1145E  30
1821020300 238S1144E  30
1821020306 239S1143E  30
1821020312 238S1144E  30
1821020318 238S1148E  30
1821020400 243S1143E  30
1821020406 244S1137E  35
1821020412 246S1134E  35
1821020418 248S1131E  35
1821020500 251S1123E  35

18S. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
18S. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

 

18S. 05/01UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.THE LIMITED REMAINING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO WARM AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ON SUBTROPICAL FEATURES.
18S. 05/01UTC. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.THE LIMITED REMAINING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC CONTINUES TO WARM AS THE SYSTEM TAKES ON SUBTROPICAL FEATURES.


INVEST 90S. 05/0145UTC. CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALOFT.
INVEST 90S. 05/0145UTC. CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALOFT.


INVEST 90S. 05/0021UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED A COMPACT SYSTEM.
INVEST 90S. 05/0021UTC. MICROWAVE DEPICTED A COMPACT SYSTEM.

INVEST 90S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, (MODERATE 20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
INVEST 90S. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, (MODERATE 20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

05/0430UTC. WINDY.
05/0430UTC. WINDY.
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Friday, February 5th 2021 à 07:35
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