SOUTH INDIAN: 19S(FARAJI) is forecast to intensify to US/Category 3 by 72hours while remaining slow-moving


UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH 36H, 19S(FARAJI) WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER 96H, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 48H AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY 72H WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.


WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 05/21UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH 36H, 19S(FARAJI) WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER 96H, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 48H AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY 72H WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.
WARNING 2 ISSUED AT 05/21UTC.UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29C. OVERALL, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLEX, WEAK AND EVOLVING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS HAS ALREADY PROVEN TRUE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WHEN IT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. THROUGH 36H, 19S(FARAJI) WILL STEER SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STR WILL WEAKEN AND TC 19S SHOULD SLOW, PERHAPS BECOME BRIEFLY QUASI-STATIONARY, THEN TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) ASSUMES CONTROL OF THE STEERING. AFTER 96H, A WEAK STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD STEER IT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 19S HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY REACHING 100 KNOTS/US CATEGORY 3 BY 48H AND A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY 72H WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND THROUGH 120H.
2021 FEB 05 2050UTC #SOUTHERNHEMISPHERE
TC #19S #FARAJI  #SOUTHINDIANOCEAN
WARNING 2
As of 18:00 UTC Feb 05, 2021:
Location: 13.2°S 80.3°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb
INTENSIFYING
19S(FARAJI) LOCATED AT 05/18UTC APPROXIMATELY 1090 KM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KM/H OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
Satellite bulletins are to be found in the comments of this post on JTWC BIS
 
 Cheers,
Patrick Hoareau
 Météo974
M974World
Cyclone Class 4
 Cheers,PH.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK AT THIS TIME.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTH LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK AT THIS TIME.


05/2015UTC. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
05/2015UTC. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRENGTHENING COMPACT SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

05/2005UTC. MICROWAVE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
05/2005UTC. MICROWAVE REVEALS AN INTENSE CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.

051452Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS AND ONLY SHOWS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.
051452Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER THE LLCC IS ON THE EDGE OF THE PASS AND ONLY SHOWS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE LEADING TO THE CONCLUSION THAT IT IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.


05/2005UTC. NOAA-20.
05/2005UTC. NOAA-20.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 6 Février 2021 à 01:35