SOUTH INDIAN: (03UtC): TC LORNA(25S) now category 1 US, intensifying over open seas

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TC LORNA(25S)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 26, 2019:
Location: 11.1°S 87.0°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure:  mb
CATEGORY 1 US
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 892 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING BUT RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252129Z
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW REFLECTIVITY FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, UPON WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KTS) AND ABOVE THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), WHILE A 251940Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 64 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24, THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS
INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD
TO THE TROUGH AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST, AND
ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG VWS. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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