Neoguri(21W) becoming extratropical. Typhoon Bualoi(22W), cat 2 and intensifying



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS  NEOGURI(21W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 21, 2019:

Location: 28.8°N 132.9°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI) WARNING
NR 019//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 21W (NEOGURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT HAS MOVED UNDER AN AREA OF VERY STRONG (45-50 KTS) UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL COLD-CORE LOW
AS IT HAS BEGUN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BROADENING NATURE
OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KTS) TO 4.0
(65 KTS). AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING VERY
STRONG (45-50KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ALBEIT PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 21W IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST REMAINING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF JAPAN AND BY TAU 36 TS
21W WILL TRACK PAST TOKYO AND BE SOUTH OF NORTHERN HONSHU. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE (> 65KTS) AND BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE ETT AND TRANSFORM INTO A COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING, STRONG GALE-FORCE WIND FIELD EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THROUGHOUT THE ETT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
REMAINED WIDELY ERRATIC WITH SEVERAL MODELS HAVING ISSUES TRACKING
THE VORTEX AS IT TRACKS INSIDE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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TY BUALOI(22W)
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 21, 2019:
Location: 14.1°N 149.2°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Gusts: 105 kt ( 195km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
CATEGORY US: 2
WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (BUALOI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (BUALOI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
MID-SIZED SYSTEM WITH COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A
SYMMETRIC 10NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A SLIGHT TILT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5/77KTS TO T5.0/90KTS AND REFLECTS THE
IMPROVED STATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DUAL
OUTFLOW - EASTWARD AND EQUATORWARD; HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE
NORTHWEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND STIFLING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ALONG-TRACK SST VALUES AT 30C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TY 22W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.     
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE
TURNING MORE NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. FUELED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED OVERALL FAVORABLE DYNAMICS THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO 95KTS BY TAU 12 AS IT TRACKS OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA
ISLANDS THEN PEAK TO 120KTS BY TAU 72 NEAR IWO TO, JAPAN.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER
IT CRESTS THE STR AND GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY DECAY MOSTLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM
INTO AN 80KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD COALESCING
WITH THE
BAROCLINIC WIND FLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 135NM AT TAU 72 AND WIDER BUT GRADUAL AND
EVEN SPREADING TO 190NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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NORTH INDIAN

INVEST 97A
As of 00:00 UTC Oct 21, 2019:

Location: 12.9°N 63.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 201800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 66.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 64.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL TURNING. A 201254Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. ALTHOUGH THE 200512Z ASCAT-B PASS MISSED THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CURRENT
POSITION INDICATE A VERY BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20
KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REVEALS SOUTHERLY, SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT, FLOW
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WITH THE
EARLIEST APPEARANCE OF 30 KNOT WINDS BY NAVGEM AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

21W: BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
21W: BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

22W: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 4 WITHIN 36H
22W: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 4 WITHIN 36H

22W: 21/03UTC. FY2G
22W: 21/03UTC. FY2G

21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
21W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
22W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 21 Octobre 2019 à 08:54