Maha(05A) and Halong(24W) both intensifying over open seas



TC 04A & TS 24W
TC 04A & TS 24W
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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS HALONG(24W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 03, 2019:

Location: 14.8°N 155.4°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt ( 95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (HALONG)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 614 NM
EAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CONDENSED AND SYMMETRICAL
WITH A FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BAND FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
SATCON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-45KTS AND REFLECTS THE
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 24W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 36.
AFTERWARD IT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.     
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS
IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TS 24W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING
VWS AND COOLER SST. HOWEVER, BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A
STORM FORCE COLD-CORE LOW, ALBEIT WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK WITH EGRR AND
AFUM THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIERS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS
TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY LEFT OUTLIER SOLUTIONS.//
NNNN

INVEST 90W
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 03, 2019:

Location: 12.3°N 112.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 030400
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM.  
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 022251Z 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CONVECTION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK
WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-29C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH NVG, GFS, AND UKM SHOWING SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITH QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 03, 2019:

Location: 17.6°N 66.4°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 984 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 66.1E.
03NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE WITH RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED TIGHT INTO
A DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS SINCE OBSCURED AN EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A TIGHT
CLUSTER OF WARM PIXELS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS
FROM PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, IT WILL TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND ERODES THE STR. BY TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE CRESTED THE STR
AXIS THEN ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE
MUMBAI PENINSULA JUST AFTER TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
ENHANCE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 48;
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES WILL
PRIMARILY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BY TAU
120, TC MAHA WILL HAVE MADE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL NEAR
SURAT AT 35KTS AND RAPIDLY DECAYING. THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME
INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER UP TO
THE MID-PORTION OF AND THEN THE RIGHT OUTLIER IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
NNNN

 

24W: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 WITHIN 48H
24W: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 WITHIN 48H

05A: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 IN 36H
05A: FORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 IN 36H


24W: 02/2304UTC
24W: 02/2304UTC

05A: 03/0158UTC
05A: 03/0158UTC

24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

24W: HWRF: 104KTS AT +78H
24W: HWRF: 104KTS AT +78H

05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 109KTS AT +24H
05A: HWRF: 109KTS AT +24H

Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Dimanche 3 Novembre 2019 à 07:17