meteo





Lekima(10W) to reach category 3 before 48h,approaching northern Taiwan.09W,11W,96W,95B updates.


09W: WARNING 22/JTWC. 10W: WARNING 13/JTWC. 11W: WARNING 6/JTWC


Météo974

M974World


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 38.1°N 128.6°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF INCHON, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062206Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY DECAYING
SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED NORTH OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED,
BROAD LLCC WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE RJTD DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TS 09W IS LOCATED UNDER THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHARP UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS UNDER SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W IS FORECAST TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT). THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A WEAK TS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED
IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER SST. TS 09W SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS.  
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TY LEKIMA(10W)

As of 00:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:

Location: 20.2°N 128.2°E
Maximum Winds: 70 kt ( 130km/h)
Gusts: 85 kt ( 160km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE AND AN INCIPIENT EYE. A 062211Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A
COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 070040Z ASCAT BULLSEYE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-55 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TY 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 185NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 NEAR TAIWAN, THEREFORE, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT FORECAST TRACK WHICH COULD AFFECT THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER
TAU 48. TY 10W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH SOME WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NEAR TAIWAN.   
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 10W WILL TURN NORTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS
IN A NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO THE EAST. STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR EASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
AFTER TAU 72 AND IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS KROSA(11W)
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 20.6°N 141.6°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt (130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 981 mb
WDPN33 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND IS BASED ON A 070039Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOW THAT TS 11W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 KNOTS). THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS WEAK WHICH HAS INHIBITED
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
GREATER THAN 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. TS 11W IS TRACKING NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 11W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR THROUGH TAU 24. FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
FOR A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72. A
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. BY TAU 24, AN APPROACHING WEST TO
EAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE A TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE STR
AND ALLOW TS 11W TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS A
WIDE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, MODELS DO AGREE IN
AN INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
TURN. HOWEVER, MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE
TURN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE STR WILL BUILD WESTWARD AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ALLOW TS 11W TO TRACK BACK TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS THE NAVGEM SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS
A WEAKER STR AND DOES NOT TURN TS 11W BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
INSTEAD, NAVGEM INDICATES A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 72. THE
GFS ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK BEYOND TAU 72.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND
FAVORS THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WHICH INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 350 NM BY
TAU 120 WITH THE UKMET SOLUTION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS
AND NAVGEM ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE
RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INVEST 96W
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 16.3°N 117.5°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NORTH INDIAN: BAY OF BENGAL

INVEST 95B
As of 00:00 UTC Aug 07, 2019:
Location: 20.3°N 87.5°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb

09W: WARNING 22
09W: WARNING 22

10W: WARNING 13
10W: WARNING 13

11W: WARNING 6
11W: WARNING 6

INVEST 96W & INVEST 95B: MEDIUM
INVEST 96W & INVEST 95B: MEDIUM

07/0040UTC. LEKIMA(10W)
07/0040UTC. LEKIMA(10W)

07/0039UTC. KROSA(11W)
07/0039UTC. KROSA(11W)

07/0230UTC
07/0230UTC

07/0230UTC
07/0230UTC

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mercredi 7 Août 2019 à 06:35