Lekima(10W): faster intensification possible. Krosa(11W): intensifying. 09W, 96W and 95B updates.


09W: Warning 19/JTWC. 10W: Warning 10/JTWC. 11W: Warning 3/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 34.5°N 129.7°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 47 NM
SOUTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM REMAINS INTACT AS IT EXITED KYUSHU INTO THE
TSUSHIMA STRAIT; HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
ERODING AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING TOPS AND ELONGATION ALONG THE
NORTHERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM NORTHERN KYUSHU. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HELD
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN AGENCY FIXES TO REFLECT THE RAPID WEAKENING
TREND. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THOSE FROM TSUSHIMA ISLAND, 10 NM TO
THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 09W HAS DRIFTED INTO
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) CAUSING
A SLIGHT FORWARD TILT. THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND MARGINAL SST (26 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU
12 UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BUSAN WITHIN SIX HOURS. AFTER
TAU 12, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHEAST- TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD, DRAG ALONG THE EASTERN SOUTH KOREAN
MOUNTAIN RANGE, THEN CROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER HOKKAIDO BY TAU 72. INCREASING VWS, LAND INTERACTION,
AND COOLING SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE SOJ AND MAINTAIN A LARGE WIND FIELD. BY TAU 72, TS
09W WILL BECOME A COLD CORE LOW AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL IN HOKKAIDO.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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TS LEKIMA(10W)

As of 06:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:

Location: 19.1°N 129.0°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 983 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 449 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
RAIN BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
060636Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0/45KTS TO
T3.5/55KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 10W IS UNDER
MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE AT 31
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH BUT
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STR WILL SLOWLY ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TS 10W
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX.
THIS PLUS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL PROMOTE STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND
INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO 65 KNOTS AFTER IT MAKES
LANDFALL JUST EAST OF TAIPEI. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TRACK MORE
POLEWARD THROUGH THE TAIWAN STRAIT THEN DRAG ACROSS THE EASTERN
CHINESE COAST. LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES
SHANGHAI. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT TO OVER 260 NM BY TAU
120 WITH NAVGEM ON THE EXTREME RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY
NAVGEM SOLUTION THAT DRIVES THE CYCLONE INTO THE STR.//
NNNN
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TS KROSA(11W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 18.6°N 143.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt ( 75km/h)
Gusts: 50 kt (95km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 991 mb
WTPN33 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM WEST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A BROAD,
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN RECENT
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40
KNOTS BASED ON 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN A 060026Z ASCAT-C PASS.
TS 11W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY
WARM WATER (30-31C). MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS CONFINED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND PREVENTED THE LLCC FROM
CONSOLIDATING APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DESPITE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE WIND FIELD. TS 11W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. ORIENTATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING TO REFLECT ANTICIPATED
CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST   
PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TD 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72
AS IT ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND TRACKS
TOWARD A WEAKNESS INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER OFFSET THE UNFAVORABLE
IMPACT OF NEAR-TERM, MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH EACH
DEPICTS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING RIDGE AS
IT SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, ALLOWING RIDGING
TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH OF TS 11W IN ITS WAKE. AS 11W ENCOUNTERS THIS
BUILDING RIDGE, FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE FOR TS 11W BY TAU 120, AND STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.  AT THIS POINT, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL REPRESENTATIONS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TREND IS TOWARD A SLIGHT WESTWARD CURVE DURING THIS PERIOD, AS
REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BECAUSE THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THIS PERIOD, A STEADY
INTENSITY OR SLIGHT WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO COOL WATER UPWELLING AND
OTHER FACTORS IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.//
NNNN
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INVEST 96W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 17.0°N 118.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
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NORTH INDIAN: BAY OF BENGAL
INVEST 95B
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 20.6°N 89.6°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb




06/09UTC. SSEC
06/09UTC. SSEC

06/0609UTC. FRANCISCO(09W).
06/0609UTC. FRANCISCO(09W).

06/0930UTC. LEKIMA(10W) getting better organized.
06/0930UTC. LEKIMA(10W) getting better organized.

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 6 Août 2019 à 13:47