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LEKIMA(10W):close to typhoon intensity slowly approaching Taiwan. 09W, 11W, 96W and 95B updates


09W: Warning 20/JTWC. 10W: Warning 11/JTWC. 11W: Warning 4/JTWC


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 35.6°N 129.4°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt ( 100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 33 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS CLEARLY MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF BUSAN AS IT
BECAME EXPOSED AS THE RAPIDLY ERODING CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED
NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A DEFINED LLC ON THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS FROM JMA AND
KMA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS INTERPOLATED FROM NEARBY
LAND AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 09W IS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE VWS IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
MARGINAL SST (26 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 09W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHEASWARD TO EASTWARD, DRAG ALONG THE EASTERN SOUTH KOREAN COAST,
THEN CROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ), CROSS THE ISLAND OF HOKKAIDO AND
EXIT BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY TAU 72. INCREASING VWS, LAND
INTERACTION, AND COOLING SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION IN THE SOJ AND MAINTAIN A LARGE WIND FIELD. BY TAU 48, TS
09W WILL BECOME A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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TS LEKIMA(10W)

As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:

Location: 19.7°N 128.5°E
Maximum Winds: 60 kt ( 110km/h)
Gusts: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN WITH
EXPANSIVE RAIN BANDS TRAILING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 060938Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T3.5/55KTS TO T4.0/65KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TS 10W IS UNDER MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE AT 31 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD
NORTHERN TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE VWS IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX. THIS PLUS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS WILL
PROMOTE STEADY THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 75
KNOTS AFTER IT CROSSES TAIWAN NEAR TAIPEI AND INTO THE TAIWAN STRAIT.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TRACK MORE
POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN CHINESE COAST. LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 120 AS IT APPROACHES SHANGHAI. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT
TO OVER 200 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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TS KROSA(11W)
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 19.0°N 142.3°E
Maximum Winds: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Gusts: 55 kt (100km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 988 mb
WTPN33 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 11W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 061207Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS EVIDENT IN THE SAME ASCAT
DATA. TS 11W HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
THE SUPPORT OF VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER (ABOUT 30C). MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
HAS CONFINED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE
BROAD, WITHIN WEAKER WINDS OBSERVED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
LLCC AND STRONGER WINDS OBSERVED AT A DISTANCE OF 50 OR MORE NAUTICAL
MILES FROM THE CENTER. DESPITE THIS, THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONSOLIDATED RELATIVE TO THE
PREVIOUS STATE. TS 11W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TD 11W WILL MEANDER POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT MOVES ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND TRACKS TOWARD A
WEAKNESS INDUCED BY A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR-TERM AS STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER OFFSET THE
UNFAVORABLE IMPACT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AS THE BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SCENARIO,
ALTHOUGH EACH DEPICTS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
STEERING RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES THE MIDLATITUDE
FLOW PATTERN. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS
JTWC FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT
TRANSLATES EASTWARD.  AS 11W ENCOUNTERS THIS BUILDING RIDGE, FORWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW.  SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IS STILL OBSERVED
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL REPRESENTATIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD CURVE DURING THIS
PERIOD, AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BECAUSE THE
STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BROAD AND MOVE SLOWLY DURING THIS PERIOD,
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO COOL WATER UPWELLING AND OTHER
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE ANTICIPATED. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.//
NNNN
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INVEST 96W
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 17.7°N 118.2°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
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NORTH INDIAN: BAY OF BENGAL
INVEST 95B
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 20.5°N 88.4°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb





06/1630UTC. RAMMB
06/1630UTC. RAMMB

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
11W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 6 Août 2019 à 19:49