Kammuri(29W): update at 29/09UTC



Météo974

M974World

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY Kammuri (29W)
As of 06:00 UTC Nov 29, 2019:

Location: 14.6°N 137.6°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt ( 140km/h)
Gusts: 90 kt ( 170km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 974 mb
CATEGORY US: 1

WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 964 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO)
THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FROM A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE IN A PARTIAL 290613Z SSMIS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. MUTLI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5-5.0 (77-90 KNOTS)
ARE ABOVE A 290349Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS, GIVING LOW
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS. MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W WILL TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR TO
THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. THROUGH
LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 96. TY
29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODELS
REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN
 


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29/0653UTC
29/0653UTC

29/06UTC
29/06UTC

TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

HWRF: 118KTS AT +72H
HWRF: 118KTS AT +72H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Vendredi 29 Novembre 2019 à 13:45