Kalmaeji and Fengshen updates at 14/03UTC



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FENGSHEN (26W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 14, 2019:

Location: 17.0°N 149.8°E
Maximum Winds: 50 kt ( 95km/h)
Gusts: 65 kt ( 120km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb
WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN)
WARNING NR 011//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 26W (FENGSHEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 232 NM EAST OF
ALAMAGAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 132340Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND
132237Z ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A
SMALL AREA OF 50-KNOT WINDS EVIDENT TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA. TS 26W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LEAVING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY-EXPOSED. TS 26W IS LOCATED
IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING AROUND THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
PERIPHERY THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER AND MODERATE DIVERGE ALOFT WILL LIKELY FUEL STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM, DESPITE THE RECENT DISSIPATION OF
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. AFTER TAU 48, A WEAKENING TREND WILL
BEGIN AS THE CIRCULATION ROUNDS THE STEERING RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY UNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE WILL SHIFT TO THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS, LIKELY STEERING TS 26W BACK TO THE WEST. NUMERICAL MODELS
AGREE WITH THIS OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT VARY IN THEIR
DEPICTIONS OF THE RATE OF WEAKENING AND TRACK SHIFT DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BASED ON THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD.//
NNNN

TD KALMAEGI (27W)
As of 00:00 UTC Nov 14, 2019:
Location: 14.1°N 127.4°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI)
WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN RECENT MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 132205Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TD 27W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE
AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (29-30C) ARE SUPPORTING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PERSISTENT, BUT DECREASING, EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 27W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTARD FOLLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER, FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE SYSTEM  
ENCOUNTERS A BREAK IN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK STEERING
FLOW. BY TAU 72, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM, STEERING IT WESTWARD TOWARD LUZON. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GALWEM
AND UKMET MODELS INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK POLEWARD TO THE
EAST OF LUZON, FARTHER INTO THE DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BUILDING RIDGE AND WESTWARD
MOTION SCENARIO, CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. BASED ON THE
OBSERVED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL RESULT IN STEADY
WEAKENING. MODEL SPREAD PERSISTS INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

TS 26W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY IN 24H
TS 26W: FORECAST TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY IN 24H

TD 27W: FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO EAST LUZON IN 72H AS A 55KTS CYCLONE
TD 27W: FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO EAST LUZON IN 72H AS A 55KTS CYCLONE

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26W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
26W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

27W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
27W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Jeudi 14 Novembre 2019 à 07:43