meteo





Invest 97W under watch, Invest 98W update


Both areas are LOW


19/06UTC
19/06UTC
Météo974

M974World


WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 98W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2019:
Location: 25.4°N 150.1°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.0N 151.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 150.0E, APPROXIMATELY
474 NM EAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. A
190438Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ CONFIRMS A COMPLETE LACK OF OVERHEAD DEEP
CONVECTION. AN 182314Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. 98W IS CURRENLTY IN A VERY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH NONEXISTENT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, VERY HIGH (35 TO
40 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND MARGINAL (26 TO 27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT 98W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

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INVEST 97W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2019:
Location: 13.6°N 133.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb

ABPW10 PGTW 190600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION BEING
SHEARED WESTWARD. A 190016Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST. A 190058Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY
BROAD AND VERY WEAK LLC. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH BROAD, DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT)
VWS AND WARM (27 TO 28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE
CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.   MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

 

INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 98W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 97W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 97W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

19/00UTC
19/00UTC
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 19 Août 2019 à 12:31