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Invest 96W and Invest 95B upgraded to MEDIUM



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

INVEST 96W
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 15.8°N 117.7°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 061730
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
 B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.7N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. A 061349Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND DEEP CONVECTION
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. A 061351Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
DEPICTS THE ELONGATED LLC WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST THAT ARE NOT YET WRAPPED AROUND, WITH WEAKER 15 KT
WINDS ELSEWHERE SURROUNDING THE STORM. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY LIMITED DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE
TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A DISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH A LIMITED WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION AS
96W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY TS 10W.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

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NORTH INDIAN: BAY OF BENGAL

INVEST 95B
As of 18:00 UTC Aug 06, 2019:
Location: 20.4°N 88.1°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt ( 55km/h)
Gusts: 40 kt ( 75km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 061800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.4N 88.1E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CHITTAGONG,
BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 061226Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A
061459Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 25-30 KT
WINDS TO THE EAST, BUT WEAKER WINDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE
COAST. 95B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY LIMITED SOUTHWESTWARD
OUTLFOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS MAINTAIN 95B WILL TRACK NORTHWEST THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND
IN THE NEXT 18 TO 36 HOURS, WITH A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR
DEVELOPMENT IN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
 

INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 96W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95B: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Mardi 6 Août 2019 à 22:51