INDIAN OCEAN: TC 01B has formed, forecast to intensify next 4 days. TC LORNA(25S) category 1 intensity to peak next 24hours


TC 01B: Warning 1/JTWC TC 25S: Warning 15/JTWC


https://www.meteo974.re/M974World_r7.html
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TC 01B
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:

Location: 4.5°N 87.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 4.9N 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 503 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND
280300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 260900)
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED FIRST WARNING TEXT TO CANCEL
AND SUPERCEDE TCFA REFERENCE.//
NNNN

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TC LORNA(25S)
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 27, 2019:

Location: 14.0°S 89.3°E
Maximum Winds: 65 kt ( 120km/h)
Gusts: 80 kt ( 150km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 978 mb
CATEGORY 1 US

REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 262246Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL
WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
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TC 01B: WARNING 1
TC 01B: WARNING 1

TC LORNA(24S): WARNING 15
TC LORNA(24S): WARNING 15

TC 01B: 0046UTC
TC 01B: 0046UTC

TC LORNA(25S): 0052UTC
TC LORNA(25S): 0052UTC


GUIDANCE FOR TC 01B
GUIDANCE FOR TC 01B

TC 01B: HWRF AT 18UTC: 119KT AT +102H
TC 01B: HWRF AT 18UTC: 119KT AT +102H

GUIDANCE FOR TC LORNA(25S)
GUIDANCE FOR TC LORNA(25S)

TC 25S: HWRF AT 18UTC: 93KT AT +30H
TC 25S: HWRF AT 18UTC: 93KT AT +30H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Samedi 27 Avril 2019 à 08:45