Halong:peak intensity/strong category 4 within 24h. Maha:near peak intensity. 90W&23W:close watch



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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TY HALONG(24W)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 18.7°N 152.3°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 949 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

WDPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (HALONG) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 24W (HALONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 24W HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE APPARENT IN ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN A 041658Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.0-6.0 (90-115 KNOTS),
SUPPORTED BY A 041549Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 107 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THERE
IS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SST VALUES
NEAR 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TY 24W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING DOWN AND ERODING THE STEERING
STR TO THE EAST OF TY 24W. TY 24W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36 THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE AS IT ROUNDS THE STR
AXIS AFTER TAU 36. BY TAU 72, TY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WHEN IT
INTERACTS WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE
SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 125
KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE, IN PART, TO THE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT
IS TAPPING INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. TY 24W
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND SLOW
TRACK MOTION OVER WATERS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED AND ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST, TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TY 24W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ATYPICALLY SLOW TRACK
SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96 DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG, LOW-LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, TY 24W WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS UNDER THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
COOLING SSTS. NAVGEM IS THE EASTERN OUTLIER SHOWING A TIGHTER
RECURVE. OTHERWISE, THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

INVEST 90W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 13.8°N 115.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 mb


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NORTH INDIAN

TC MAHA(05A)
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 19.4°N 63.6°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt ( 195km/h)
Gusts: 130 kt ( 240km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 960 mb
CATEGORY US: 3

REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 63.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (MAHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM MAINTAINING GOOD
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND A DISTINCT 10 NM EYE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 041726Z GMI 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH A BANDING
FEATURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET AT 105 KTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T5.5 (102 KTS), A 041745Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.6
(105 KTS), AND A 041639Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 98 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS STRONG POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN
A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) REMAINS FAVORABLE AT 27-28 CELSIUS. TC 05A
IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT
REALIZED THE FORECASTED NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT THIS POINT. TC 05A IS
STILL EXPECTED TO RECURVE TO AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER IT ROUNDS THE
STR NEAR TAU 12. CONCURRENTLY, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA, WEAKENING THE STR.  AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD, IT WILL BECOME THE
PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR TC 05A WHICH IS FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST INDIA THROUGHOUT THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME VARIATION IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE WITHIN
THE NUMERICAL MODELS; HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW COMPLETION OF THE
RECURVE BY TAU 12. AFTER THAT, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AFTER
TAU 36 AND CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, TC
05A WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST INDIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
041800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND
052100Z.//
NNNN

REMNANTS OF TD 23W
As of 18:00 UTC Nov 04, 2019:

Location: 13.2°N 91.9°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
ABIO10 PGTW 041800
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 23W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 95.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 514
NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 041556Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT,
POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ESTIMATED AT 30-
31C, ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT, DEPICTING A SLOW-
DEVELOPING SYSTEM REACHING 35 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 WHILE ON A
MEANDERING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMNANTS OF 23W IS BEING ASSESSED AS MEDIUM BASED ON ITS CURRENT
STRUCTURE, DESPITE THE LATE FORMATION TIMELINE IN GLOBAL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
 


TY 24W: FORECAST TO PEAK WITHIN 24H
TY 24W: FORECAST TO PEAK WITHIN 24H

TC 05A: INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 65KTS AFTER 24H
TC 05A: INTENSITY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 65KTS AFTER 24H

TY 24W: CLICK TO ANIMATE
TY 24W: CLICK TO ANIMATE

TC 05A: CLICK TO ANIMATE
TC 05A: CLICK TO ANIMATE

TY 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TY 24W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

24W: HWRF: 136KTS AT +12H
24W: HWRF: 136KTS AT +12H

TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
TC 05A: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

05A: HWRF: 108KTS  AT +0H
05A: HWRF: 108KTS AT +0H

INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 90W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

90W: HWRF: 81KTS AT +78H
90W: HWRF: 81KTS AT +78H

ex TC 23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
ex TC 23W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

ex 23W: HWRF: 97KTS AT +126H
ex 23W: HWRF: 97KTS AT +126H
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 4 Novembre 2019 à 23:27