FRANCISCO(09W): Kyushu landfall in 12h. LEKIMA(10W): typhoon in 72h. 95W: now Medium


09W: Warning 15/JTWC. 10W: Warning 6/JTWC. 95W: MEDIUM


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WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

TS FRANCISCO (09W)
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 30.9°N 134.7°E
Maximum Winds: 55 kt ( 100km/h)
Gusts: 70 kt ( 130km/h)

Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
WDPN32 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING
CONVECTION. THE MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN THE 050526Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE
FURTHER SUPPORTS THE POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS)
AND A 050115Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND FAIR RADIAL
OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM AN AREA OF UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TS 09W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.   
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TS 09W WILL CONTINUE ON A SIMILAR TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKE LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU
AROUND TAU 12, AND PASS NEAR SASEBO JUST AFTER TAU 24. SECOND
LANDFALL WILL OCCUR NEAR BUSAN, KOREA AROUND TAU 30 AS THE CYCLONE
STARTS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W WILL HAVE
ROUNDED THE STR AXIS, BEGIN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SEA OF
JAPAN, AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AS IT RAPIDLY TRACKS OVER
JAPAN AND KOREA. BY THE TIME TS 09W EMERGES INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN,
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35 KTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48, TS 09W WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETE ETT AROUND TAU 72. DESPITE COOL SST AND
HIGH VWS, THE INTENSITY SHOULD ONLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD-CORE LOW. FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST,
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO 150 NM, LENDING
TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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TS LEKIMA(10W)

As of 06:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:

Location: 19.1°N 129.7°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt ( 65km/h)
Gusts: 45 kt ( 85km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 mb

WDPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LEKIMA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LEKIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 456 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED USING THE MSI AND SHALLOW
BANDING IN A 050649Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW,
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS 10W IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT IS BEING
DISTORTED BY TS 09W.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST HAS
BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE, PULLING THE EXTENDED TRACK
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER WEST OVER EASTERN CHINA.
   B. THROUGH TAU 48, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWLY ACCELERATE AS TS 09W MOVES AWAY AND THE STR
BUILDS BEHIND IT. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72. UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGH AS THERE IS A 220NM
SPREAD AT TAU 72 WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY BETWEEN NVGM
AND JGSI TRACKS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 96. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM
FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
UNTIL LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS ARE INTRODUCED AS IT BEGINS TRACKING
OVER TAIWAN AROUND TAU 90. TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120 HAS BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED WITH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN POSITION OVER COASTAL
CHINA OR FURTHER INLAND. THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE
COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND LAND INTERACTION EFFECTS,
RESULTING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BASED ON THE
HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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INVEST 95W
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 05, 2019:
Location: 17.7°N 144.6°E
Maximum Winds: 20 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb
ABPW10 PGTW 050600
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY
245 NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH NO
CLEARLY DISCERNABLE CENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE LLC. THIS IS ALSO SEEN IN A 042341Z ASCAT PASS AND 050326Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW (5-15KTS)
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLY WARM (29-31C), DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS MARGINAL DUE TO INFLOW FROM THE EAST. DIVERGENCE AND SPEED
SHEAR BOTH PICK UP RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH AND ARE SUSTAINING THE
CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY PREDICTING
DEVELOPMENT OF 95W WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKS NORTHWARD. UKMO IS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER, CALLING FOR
95W TO BE RE-ABSORBED INTO TS 10W RATHER THAN DEVELOPING 95W
INDEPENDENTLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

 

09W: WARNING 15. TRACKING CLOSE TO SASEBO IN APPROX 24H
09W: WARNING 15. TRACKING CLOSE TO SASEBO IN APPROX 24H

10W: WARNING 6. PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS FORECAST IN 72H
10W: WARNING 6. PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KNOTS FORECAST IN 72H

INVEST 95W: UPGRADED TO MEDIUM
INVEST 95W: UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

05/10UTC: FRANCISCO(09W)
05/10UTC: FRANCISCO(09W)

05/0915UTC. FRANCISCO(09W)
05/0915UTC. FRANCISCO(09W)

05/0915UTC. LEKIMA(10W)
05/0915UTC. LEKIMA(10W)

09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
09W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
10W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE

INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
INVEST 95W: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Rédigé par PATRICK HOAREAU le Lundi 5 Août 2019 à 14:09